Abstract
Data on mortality from four European low-mortality countries, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Norway, and more than 40 recent years (1950–1994) have been used to investigate the usefulness of 11 functions representing the age pattern of mortality at the oldest ages. Functions with two parameters proved to be inadequate to fit mortality rates in the age interval 80–110 years. Less parsimonious functions, i.e. with three and more parameters, perform better. When reliable data exist up to a very old age, i.e. ideally up to 110 but at least up to 90 years, the Coale-Kisker method is suggested as the best choice. If the data for the oldest ages are not reliable, extrapolation of the age pattern is recommended by using a polynomial, provided that the quality of data is satisfactory for all ages up to 85 years.
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Boleslawski, L., Tabeau, E. (2001). Comparing Theoretical Age Patterns of Mortality Beyond the Age of 80. In: Tabeau, E., van den Berg Jeths, A., Heathcote, C. (eds) Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries. European Studies of Population, vol 9. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47562-6_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47562-6_6
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
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