The Latest Mortality Forecasts in the European Union

Abstract

Chapter 10 reviews the outcomes, methods and assumptions in the latest mortality forecasts for the European Union countries. Section 10.1 introduces the topic, then Section 10.2 highlights general features of national forecasts such as, for instance, their timing, type (i.e. forecasts, projections, or scenarios), uncertainty variants, length of forecast horizons, and disaggregation of the population. Section 10.3 gives the values of life expectancy, predicted increases and sex differences by the year 2020. National forecasts are discussed within the context of an international perspective. Three comparisons of national forecasts are made here: comparisons with the previous national results, with the life expectancies from the United Nations 1996-based population projections, and finally with the 1995-based Eurostat long-term mortality scenarios. Section 10.4 discusses the age-related assumptions used by the various countries and gives more in-depth explanations of the rationale underlying the outcomes of national forecasts. Sections 10.5 to 10.7 review the methods applied in the most recent national forecasts, the justification of assumptions and the use of variants. Section 10.8 comprises the principal conclusions.