Environment and Economic Development: An Analysis of Electricity Demand Projections for India
- 11 Downloads
Increase in electricity use widens economic opportunity to the population, improves social infrastructure, and increases productivity. In this study, we examine the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption, and make projections of electricity demand based on evidence from international experience. Electricity consumption for high-income countries is 8834.3 Kwh per capita in 2014, while low- and middle-income countries on an average consume 1922.1 Kwh per capita electricity. India’s total (and per capita) electricity consumption is very low as compared to many high-income and transition economies. The study estimates the year in which India is expected to shift from lower middle-income economy category to upper middle-income economy category, and subsequently to high-income economy category, under three scenarios: pessimistic, BAU, and optimistic scenario. Results show that even under an optimistic scenario, India’s per capita electricity consumption is likely to be lower than the current average electricity consumption of high-income countries (7980 Kwh) when it crosses its high-income level, i.e., in 2038 under optimistic scenario. The study further discusses the policy reforms that have been initiated to enable a significant shift in the overall operations of the electricity sector and promoted energy efficiency, leading to an expansion in the infrastructure sector at a relatively lower environmental cost in the recent past and the way forward.
- Bayar, Y. (2014). Electricity consumption and economic growth in emerging economies. Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, 4, 1–18.Google Scholar
- Bureau of Energy Efficiency. (2016). Energy conservation. https://www.beeindia.gov.in/sites/default/files/12.pdf.
- Bureau of Energy Efficiency. (2018). Guidelines: Energy efficient street lighting. https://beeindia.gov.in/sites/default/files/ctools/Energy%20Efficient%20Street%20Lighting%20Guidelines.pdf.
- Chunekar, A., Mulay, S., & Kelkar, M. (2017). Understanding the impacts of India’s LED bulb programme, “Ujala”. Prayas (Energy Group).Google Scholar
- Ghosh, S. (2009). Electricity supply, employment, and real GDP in India: evidence from cointegration and Granger causality tests. Energy Policy, 37, 2926–2929.Google Scholar
- IEA. (2018). Key World energy statistics 2018.Google Scholar
- IPCC. (2018). Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization.Google Scholar
- IPSP. (2018). Summary. Rethinking society for the 21st century. report of the international panel on social progress. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Kantar, E., & Keskin, M. (2013). The relationships between electricity consumption and GDP in Asian countries, using hierarchical structure methods. Physica A, 392, 5678–5684.Google Scholar
- MOSPI. (2018). Energy statistics 2018. Central Statistics Office, Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, GoI.Google Scholar
- MP Ensystem and Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation. (2018). Agriculture demand side management-new delivery mechanisms. https://shaktifoundation.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Agriculture-DSM.pdf.
- Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2009). Multivariate granger-causality between electricity consumption, exports, and GDP: Evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries. Energy Policy, 37, 229e36.Google Scholar
- PWC. (2012). Emerging opportunities and challenges, India national congress. https://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/power-mining/energing_opportunities_and_challenges.pdf.
- Saxena, A., Gopal, I., Ramanathan, K., Jayakumar, M., & Prasad, N. (2017). Transitions in Indian Electricity Sector 2017–2030.Google Scholar
- Sengupta, R. P. (2016). Challenges of transition from fossil fuels to green regimes. Asian Institute of Transport Development.Google Scholar
- Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation. at: https://shaktifoundation.in/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Technology-Assessment-for-DSM-in-India.pdf.
- UN. (2015). Sustainable development goals. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/?menu=1300.
- UNFPA. (2018). UNFPA India Ninth country programme highlights. https://india.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/UNFPA%20Profile_combined.pdf.
- Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2004). Disaggregated industrial energy consumption and GDP: The case of Shanghai, 1952–1999. Energy economics, 26(1), 69–75.Google Scholar
- Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2006). Electricity consumption and economic growth: a time series experience for 17 African countries. Energy Policy, 34, 1106–1114.Google Scholar
- World Bank. (2019). World development indicators, World Bank.Google Scholar
- World Bank & Ecofys. (2016). Carbon pricing watch 2016: An advance brief from the state and trends of carbon pricing 2016 report. http://www.ecofys.com/en/publications/carbon-pricing-watch-2016/.
- Zahno, M., Michaelowa, K., Dasgupta, P., & Sachdeva, I. (2018). Health awareness and the transition towards clean cooking fuels: Evidence from Rajasthan. India: Mimeo.Google Scholar