Market Diffusion Model of Electric Vehicles for Planning Charging Infrastructure in India
The Indian government has set an ambitious goal of having an all-electric vehicle fleet by 2030. However, limiting factors related to technology, market and policy could impede their adoption. The objective of this research is to forecast how the diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) will happen in India and the crucial elements that would influence adoption. The research outcomes are expected to help policy makers to optimally phase investments and incentives earmarked for public charging infrastructure. ‘Bass diffusion model’ has been used as the base for preparing a system dynamics model using Vensim software to forecast the diffusion of EV’s from 2017 to 2030. Consumer willingness to purchase EV’s has been elicited through a survey conducted among 50 respondents, who drive 4-wheelers. Adoption has been modeled considering the effect of 4 parameters on consumer willingness to purchase EV, namely- price differential between EV’s and ICE vehicles, range, recharge time and charging infrastructure density. The model output indicates an S-shaped diffusion curve with saturation near the 50th month. Out of the four parameters, adoption is found to be highly sensitive to charging infrastructure density. The paper concludes that there is a high scope of optimizing government investment in charging infrastructure which would require a detailed view of technical, policy and market related aspects.
KeywordsDiffusion Electric vehicle Price differential Recharge time Consumer willingness
The authors would like to thank PwC staff for participating in the survey and for useful discussions. The views represented are those of the authors and only they are responsible for any acts of omission or commission.
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