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Market Diffusion Model of Electric Vehicles for Planning Charging Infrastructure in India

  • Neeraj RamchandranEmail author
  • Pradeep Singhvi
  • Manoj Bansal
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering book series (LNEE, volume 580)

Abstract

The Indian government has set an ambitious goal of having an all-electric vehicle fleet by 2030. However, limiting factors related to technology, market and policy could impede their adoption. The objective of this research is to forecast how the diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) will happen in India and the crucial elements that would influence adoption. The research outcomes are expected to help policy makers to optimally phase investments and incentives earmarked for public charging infrastructure. ‘Bass diffusion model’ has been used as the base for preparing a system dynamics model using Vensim software to forecast the diffusion of EV’s from 2017 to 2030. Consumer willingness to purchase EV’s has been elicited through a survey conducted among 50 respondents, who drive 4-wheelers. Adoption has been modeled considering the effect of 4 parameters on consumer willingness to purchase EV, namely- price differential between EV’s and ICE vehicles, range, recharge time and charging infrastructure density. The model output indicates an S-shaped diffusion curve with saturation near the 50th month. Out of the four parameters, adoption is found to be highly sensitive to charging infrastructure density. The paper concludes that there is a high scope of optimizing government investment in charging infrastructure which would require a detailed view of technical, policy and market related aspects.

Keywords

Diffusion Electric vehicle Price differential Recharge time Consumer willingness 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank PwC staff for participating in the survey and for useful discussions. The views represented are those of the authors and only they are responsible for any acts of omission or commission.

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Neeraj Ramchandran
    • 1
    Email author
  • Pradeep Singhvi
    • 1
  • Manoj Bansal
    • 1
  1. 1.GRID-EnergyPwC IndiaGurgaonIndia

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