Advertisement

Population Growth’s Effect on Economic Development in Rwanda

  • Daniel Ruturwa SebikabuEmail author
  • Eric Ruvuna
  • Martin Ruzima
Chapter
  • 4 Downloads
Part of the Frontiers in African Business Research book series (FABR)

Abstract

Population growth plays a crucial role in every country’s development process. Thus, both demographers and development economists emphasize on the population growth–economic development nexus. This study explores the effects of population growth on economic development in Rwanda over the period of 1974–2013. The study uses data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and uses economic growth as a proxy for economic development and the neoclassical growth model to capture the effects of population growth on economic development. It also uses the ARDL technique for a time series analysis. In the long run, ARDL results show that the population growth has a positive and statistically significant impact on economic development. In the short run, population growth does not have any significant impact on economic development in Rwanda. Based on the findings, the study recommends that policymakers should keep controlling the population growth rate for economic development.

Keywords

Population growth Economic development ARDL Rwanda 

JEL Classification Codes

A10 J11 J13 O11 

References

  1. Abdul, R., & Deyuan, Z. (2018). Investigating the linkage between economic growth, electricity access, energy use, and population growth in Pakistan. Journal of Applied Sciences, 8, 2442.Google Scholar
  2. Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2008). Persistence of power, elites, and institutions. American Economic Review, 98(1), 267–293.Google Scholar
  3. Adewole, A. O. (2012). Effect of population on economic development in Nigeria: A quantitative assessment. International Journal of Physical and Social Sciences, 2(5), 11–17.Google Scholar
  4. Afzal, M. (2009). Population growth and economic development in Pakistan. The Open Demography Journal2(1).Google Scholar
  5. Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (2003). Endogenous growth theory. Cambridge (MA): MIT Press.Google Scholar
  6. Ahlburg, D. A. (1996). Population and poverty. In D. A. Ahlburg, A. C. Kelley, & K. O. Mason (Eds.), The impact of population growth on wellbeing in developing countries. Berlin: Springer.Google Scholar
  7. Ali, S., & Amin, A. (2013). The impact of population growth on economic development in Pakistan. Middle East Journal of scientific Research, 18(4), 483–491.Google Scholar
  8. Baker, D., Delong, J. B., & Krugman, P. R. (2005). Asset returns and economic growth. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 289–330.Google Scholar
  9. Barro, R. J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1991). Convergence across states and regions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 107–182.Google Scholar
  10. Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2008). Global demographic change: Dimensions and economic significance. Population and Development Review, 34, 17–51.Google Scholar
  11. Boadu, E. A. (1994). Rapid population growth and development in Ghana. Accra: Department of Geography and Resource Development, University of Ghana.Google Scholar
  12. Boserup, E. (1965). The conditions of agricultural growth: The economics of agrarian change under population pressure. Chicago, IL: Aldine.Google Scholar
  13. Boserup, E. (1985). Economic and demographic inter-relationships in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review, 11(3), 383–397. Or 81.Google Scholar
  14. Bouzahzah, M. (2000). Développements de la Modélisationen Equilibre Général Calculable (p. 2). Thèse de doctorat: Université de Lille.Google Scholar
  15. Chowdhury, M. N. M., & Hossain, M. M. (2019). Population growth and economic development in Bangladesh: Revisited Malthus. American Economic & Social Review, 5(2), 1–7.Google Scholar
  16. Dao, M. Q. (2012). Population and economic growth in developing countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 2(1), 6–20.Google Scholar
  17. Darrat, A. F., & Al-Yousif, Y. (1999). On the long-run relationship between population and economic growth: Some time series evidence for developing countries. Eastern Economic Journal, 25(3), 301–313.Google Scholar
  18. David, C., Bloom David, E., & Malaney, P. N. (1999). Demographic change and economic growth in Asia. Center for International Development (CID) at Harvard University.Google Scholar
  19. Davis, J. C., & Henderson, J. Vernon. (2003). Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process. Journal of Urban Economics, 53(1), 98–125.Google Scholar
  20. De la Croix, D., Pierrard, O., & Sneessens, H. R. (2012). Aging and pensions in general equilibrium: Labor market imperfections matter. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37(1), 104–124.Google Scholar
  21. Eli, H. T., Dauda, M. I., & Peter, A. (2015). Impact of population growth on economic growth in Nigeria (1980–2010). Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 20(4), 115–123.Google Scholar
  22. Furuoka, F. (2010). Population growth and economic development: Empirical evidence from the Philippines. Philippine Journal of Development, 37(1), 81–93.Google Scholar
  23. Furuoka, F. (2013). Population growth and economic development in Indonesia: A revisit with new data and methods. Acta Oeconomica, 63(4), 451–467.Google Scholar
  24. Glover, D. R., & Simon, J. L. (1975). The effect of population density on infrastructure: The case of road building. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 23(3), 453–468.Google Scholar
  25. Gujarati, D. N. (1995). Basic econometrics. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
  26. Hanushek, E. A., & Kimko, D. D. (2000). Schooling, labor-force quality, and the growth of nations. American Economic Review, 90(5), 1184–1208.Google Scholar
  27. Haug, A. A. (2002). Temporal aggregation and the power of cointegration tests: A Monte Carlo study. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64(4), 399–412.Google Scholar
  28. Heady, D. D., & Hodge, A. (2009). The effect of population growth on economic growth: A meta-regression analysis of the macroeconomic literature. Population and Development Review, 35, 221–248.Google Scholar
  29. Heijdra, B. J., & Romp, W. E. (2008). Retirement, pensions, and ageing. Journal of Public Economics, 93, 586–604.Google Scholar
  30. Henderson, J. V. (2002). Urbanization in developing countries. World Bank Research Observer, 17(1), 89–112.Google Scholar
  31. Hughes, J., & Cain, L. P. (2003). American economic history (6th ed.). Boston: Addison Wesley.Google Scholar
  32. Kelley, A. C. (1988). Population matters: Demographic change, economic growth, and poverty in the developing world. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  33. Kelley, A. C., & Schmidt, R. M. (1994). Population and income change: Recent evidence. In World Bank Discussion Papers (No. 249).Google Scholar
  34. Kelley, A. C., & Schmidt, R. M. (2005). Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis. Journal of Population Economics, 18(2), 275–300.Google Scholar
  35. Klasen, S., & Lawson, D. (2007). The impact of population growth on economic growth and poverty reduction in Uganda. Diskussionsbeiträgeausdem Volkswirtschaftlichen Seminar der Universität Göttingen.Google Scholar
  36. Koduru, B. P. K., & Tatavarthi, A. (2016). Effect of population growth on economic development in India.Google Scholar
  37. Latimer, A., & Kulkarni, K. (2008). Population and economic development: A comparative study. Journal of Population and Social Studies, 14, 47–66.Google Scholar
  38. Levine, R., & Renelt, D. (1992). A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions. American Economic Review, 82, 942–963.Google Scholar
  39. Linden, E. (2017). Remember the population bomb? It’s still ticking (p. 4). New York Times: Baker Sunday Review.Google Scholar
  40. Lucas, R. E., Jr. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3–42.Google Scholar
  41. Maddison, A. (2001). The world economy. A millennial perspective. OECD Development Centre.Google Scholar
  42. Malthus, T. (1970). An essay on the principle of population and a summary view of the principles of population. London: Pickering.Google Scholar
  43. McWhinney, E., & Angela, S. M. (2007). Human population dynamics in protected areas. Innovations in a conservation series. Parks in Peril Program. Arlington, VA, USA. The Nature Conservancy.Google Scholar
  44. Menike, H. R. A. (2018). A literature review on population growth and economic development. International Journal of Humanities Social Sciences and Education, 5(5), 67–74.Google Scholar
  45. Mora, C., & Engelman, R. (2017). The interaction of human population, food production, and biodiversity protection. Science, 356(6335), 260–264.Google Scholar
  46. Osipian, A. (2009). The impact of human capital on economic growth: A case study in Post-Soviet Ukraine. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  47. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.Google Scholar
  48. Peterson, E., & Wesley, F. (2017). The role of population in economic growth. SAGE Open, 7(4), 2158244017736094.Google Scholar
  49. Piketty, T. (2014). Capital in the twenty-first century. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
  50. Rohan, K. (1999). Does India’s population growth has a positive effect on economic growth? Social Science, 410.Google Scholar
  51. Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economics, 94(5), 1002–1037.Google Scholar
  52. Rotehr, P. C., Catenaro, M., & Shwab, G. (2003). Ageing and pensions in the Euro area survey and projection results. Social Protection Discussion Paper Series No 0307, The World Bank.Google Scholar
  53. Shaari, M. S., Rahim, H. A., & Rashid, I. M. (2013). Relationship among population, energy consumption and economic growth in Malaysia. The International Journal of Significance. Population and Development Review, 34, 17–51.Google Scholar
  54. Simon, J. L. (1981). The ultimate resource. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  55. Simon, J. (1996). The economics of population growth. The University of Chicago journals.Google Scholar
  56. Skirbekk, V. (2008). Age and productivity capacity: descriptions, causes and policy. Ageing Horizons, 8, 4–12.Google Scholar
  57. Solow, R. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94.Google Scholar
  58. Song, S. (2013). Demographic changes and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Asia (p. 121). Paper: Honors Projects.Google Scholar
  59. Strulik, H. (2005). The role of human capital and population growth in R&D-based models of economic growth. Review of International Economics, 13(1), 129–145.Google Scholar
  60. Tartiyus, E. H., Dauda, T. M., & Peter, A. (2015). Impact of population growth on economic growth in Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science (IOSR-JHSS), 20(4), 115–123.Google Scholar
  61. Thirlwall, A. P. (1993). Growth and development with special reference to developing economies (pp. 143–155). University of Kent at Canterbury.Google Scholar
  62. Thuku, G. K., Gachanja, P. M., & Obere, A. (2013). The impact of population change on economic growth in Kenya University.Google Scholar
  63. Wang, F., & Mason, A. (2007). Demographic dividend and prospects for economic development in China. In United nations expert group meeting on social and economic implications of changing population age structures (Vol. 141).Google Scholar
  64. World Bank, & Anudjo, E. Y. (2015). The population growth-economic growth Nexus: New evidence from Ghana. Doctoral dissertation, University of Ghana.Google Scholar
  65. Yao, W., Kinugasa, T., & Hamori, S. (2013). An empirical analysis of the relationship between economic development and population growth in China. Applied Economics45(33), 4651–4661. Crist, E.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Daniel Ruturwa Sebikabu
    • 1
    Email author
  • Eric Ruvuna
    • 2
  • Martin Ruzima
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of Applied Statistics, School of EconomicsUniversity of RwandaKigaliRwanda
  2. 2.Department of Economics and Management, Business and Development Studies FacultyKibogora PolytechnicNyamashekeRwanda
  3. 3.Institute of Policy Analysis and Research - Rwanda (IPAR-Rwanda)KigaliRwanda

Personalised recommendations