Prediction of Coal Mine Accidental Deaths for 5 Years Based on 14 Years Data Analysis

  • Yousuo Joseph Zou
  • Jun Steed Huang
  • Tong XuEmail author
  • Anne Zou
  • Bruce He
  • Xinyi Tao
  • Sam Zhang
Conference paper
Part of the Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing book series (AISC, volume 1143)


The situation of coal mine safety production is grim, in order to emphasize the importance of miners’ safety, this paper predicted the death toll of China over the next five years. The death toll of 2005–2018 was logarithmically calculated and analyzed by the linear regression model, then, using the least square method to find its regression coefficient, and the regression equation is established by using the obtained regression coefficients. The death toll was predicted using the derived regression equation: Over time, the number of deaths among coal miners has fallen proportionately from year to year, and the prediction curve conforms to the existing law of death. In error analysis, seven regression evaluation indexes are used to evaluate this regression model, and the results show that the model is feasible.


Regression analysis Logarithmic space Prediction 



Thanks to Xin Luo for his computation and draft paper-writing, thanks to Professor Yuhui Shi from SUST for his help, thanks to CCTEG Changzhou Research Institute verify data.


  1. 1.
    China University of Mining and Technology, Institute of Mine Safety Engineering Data Set. Accessed 10 Jul 2019
  2. 2.
    Lian, H.Q., Wei, R.: Research on the prediction of coal mine million tons mortality in Shanxi based on the GM(1, 1) model. J. North China Inst. Sci. Technol. 11(11), 43–56 (2014)Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Zhu, J.F., Duan, J.M., Gao, L.: Comparative study of prediction methods of death rate per million-ton in coal mine. J. North China Inst. Sci. Technol. 15(3), 10–20 (2018)Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    China Labour Bulletin: Bone and blood the price of coal in China. CLB Research Report No. 6, March (2008)Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Guo, W.C., Wu, C.: Comparative study on coal mine safety between China and the US from a safety sociology perspective. Procedia Eng. 26, 2003–2011 (2011)Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Tu, J.J.: Industrial organization of the chinese coal industry. Stanford Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper, 103 (2011)Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Chu, C., Jain, R., Muradian, N., Zhang, G.: Statistical analysis of coal mining safety in China with reference to the impact of technology. J. South. Afr. Inst. Min. Metall. 116(1), 73–78 (2016)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. 8.
    Tong, R.P., Zhang, Y.W., Cui, Y.W., et al.: Characteristic analysis of unsafe behavior by Coal Miners: multi-dimensional description of the Pan-Scene data. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 15(8) (2018)Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Michael, H.K., Christopher, J.N., John, N.: Applied Linear Regression Models, 4th edn. McGraw-Hill, New York (2004)Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    Cheng, L., Yan, J.L., Hong, L.Z.: An improved coal and gas outburst prediction algorithm based on BP neural network. Int. J. Control Autom. 8(6), 169–176 (2015)CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yousuo Joseph Zou
    • 1
  • Jun Steed Huang
    • 2
  • Tong Xu
    • 3
    Email author
  • Anne Zou
    • 4
  • Bruce He
    • 5
  • Xinyi Tao
    • 6
  • Sam Zhang
    • 7
  1. 1.University of GuamMangilaoUSA
  2. 2.Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhenChina
  3. 3.Jiangsu UniversityZhenjiangChina
  4. 4.School of EngineeringVanderbilt UniversityNashvilleUSA
  5. 5.Ryerson UniversityTorontoCanada
  6. 6.University of Southern CaliforniaLos AngelesUSA
  7. 7.Queen’s UniversityKingstonCanada

Personalised recommendations