Policy Simulation: Effects of China’s Tax Cuts Policy to Boost the Growth of Household Consumption

  • Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen UniversityEmail author
Part of the Current Chinese Economic Report Series book series (CCERS)


Our forecast results shows that the Chinese economy is expected to continue to slow down in 2020 due to the following reasons: First, the growth of investment is difficult to rebound shortly as, one the one hand, the increasing global trade uncertainty due to Sino-US trade friction has inhibited the investment growth of China’s export-oriented enterprises; on the other hand, the investment of real estate is difficult to grow rapidly due to strict regulation policy impact, infrastructure investment is unlikely to increase significantly owing to high government debt ratio, and negative growth in profits has weakened the growth of manufacturing investment.


  1. André, C. (2016, August). Household debt in OECD countries: Stylised facts and policy issues. In The Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent Trends in the Real Estate Market and Its Analysis-2015 Edition.Google Scholar
  2. Benzarti, Y., & Carloni, D. (2019). Who really benefits from consumption tax cuts? Evidence from a large VAT reform in France. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11(1), 38–63.Google Scholar

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© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University
    • 1
    Email author
  1. 1.Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen UniversityXiamenChina

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