Due to uncertainties of the input parameters, such as the maximum principle stress, the minimum principle stress, the cohesion and the internal friction angle, the evaluation of the rock strength becomes the uncertainty problem. In such case, the uncertainty analysis method was proposed to deal with the uncertainty of the rock strength based on Mohr-Coulomb criterion. To describe the properties of the random variables, the indoor experiment was performed to obtain the mean and the standard deviation of the input parameters. Furthermore, the random technique was introduced to yield the sample data based on the mean and the standard deviation. More importantly, the factor of safety (FOS) was defined to evaluate the rock strength based on Mohr-coulomb criterion. Meanwhile, Monte Carlo method was introduced to the probability of the factor of safety. The results show that FOS has a range of [0.6, 1.4], and shows an obvious normal distribution.
Rock strength Uncertainty Monte Carlo method Mohr-Coulomb criterion
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The author is very much indebted to the Projects Supported by Fundamental Research Funds of China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corp (No. CPGEC2017KJ01) for the financial support.
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