Uncertainty Analysis of Urban Building Energy Based on Two-Dimensional Monte Carlo Method

  • Xing Fu
  • Wei TianEmail author
  • Yu Sun
  • Chuanqi Zhu
  • Baoquan Yin
Conference paper
Part of the Environmental Science and Engineering book series (ESE)


Energy performance of urban buildings is affected by a number of inherent uncertain factors, including weather conditions, internal heat gains, occupant behavior, and HVAC systems. These uncertain variables lead to variations of energy use in urban buildings. Therefore, this paper implements a two-dimensional Monte Carlo method to properly assess variations of energy performance of urban buildings by considering two types of uncertain factors (aleatory and epistemic). In this study, aleatory uncertainty refers to inherent randomness of input variables in building energy analysis; whereas, epistemic uncertainty refers to retrofit variations to improve energy efficiency for urban buildings. The results indicate that the two-dimensional Monte Carlo technique can consider two types of uncertain factors to quantify the variations of energy performance in urban buildings. It is also found that the aleatory uncertainty of energy performance is larger than the epistemic uncertainty of energy use in this study, which indicates that more attention should be paid on aleatory uncertainty to reduce its influence on energy use.


Uncertainty analysis Urban buildings 2D Monte Carlo method Aleatory uncertainty Epistemic uncertainty 



This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51778416) and the Key Projects of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research, Ministry of Education (China) (contract No. 16JZDH014).


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© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.College of Mechanical EngineeringTianjin University of Science and TechnologyTianjinChina
  2. 2.Tianjin International Joint Research and Development Center of Low-Carbon Green Process EquipmentTianjinChina
  3. 3.School of ArchitectureHarbin Institute of TechnologyHarbinChina
  4. 4.Tianjin Architecture Design InstituteTianjinChina

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