Quarterly Forecast for 2018–19
In the first half of 2018, although the global economic expansion momentum continued, the growth prospects of major economies begun to diverse. On the one hand, the growth of the US economy accelerated due to the active labor market, the low unemployment rate, and the tax reform boosting the strong demand. US GDP grew by 2.58 and 2.87% YoY in the first and second quarter respectively. On the other hand, the growth rates of other major economies such as Germany and France in the first half of 2018 were lower than expected. The political and economic uncertainty faced by Italy deterred the recovery process in the euro zone. The GDP growth rate of the euro zone in the first two quarters of 2018 reached 2.1 and 2.2% respectively, which have been good performance since the global financial crisis, but still slightly lower than 2017.