Advertisement

System Dynamics Model of Demographic Transition

  • Toshihiko HaraEmail author
Chapter
  • 8 Downloads
Part of the SpringerBriefs in Population Studies book series (BRIEFSPOPULAT)

Abstract

Based on the historical analysis of Japan’s Demographic Transition (JDT) and using a System Dynamics (SD), approach referencing the World3 (Meadows et al. 1972), I have constructed the Demographic Transition Model of Japan (DTMJ). This model aims to explicate the Demographic Transition (DT) of Japan by logico-mathematical elucidation, with no purpose for exact estimation or projection. Therefore, the use of historical data will be kept at the minimum and the model is designed to reproduce the process of JDT endogenously. According to a causal model of JDT, this model includes six major factors: population-age structure, fertility, reproduction timing, social capital accumulation, lifespan, and migration. In this chapter, the basic concept of modeling, the relations among six major sectors, and the structure and functions of each sector will be analyzed in detail. And the variables and equations of DTMJ will be defined and discussed.

Keywords

Japan’s demographic transition (JDT) System dynamics (SD) World3 Logico-mathematical model Demographic transition model of Japan (DTMJ) Basic concept of DTMJ Variables and equations of DTMJ Jay Wright Forrester Donella Meadows 

References

  1. Bourgeois-Pichat J (1965) Les facteurs de la fécondité non dirigée. Population 1965/3 20:383–424CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Forrester JW (1961) Industrial dynamics. Pegasus Communications, Waltham, MAGoogle Scholar
  3. Forrester JW (1968) Principles of systems. Productivity Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  4. Forrester JW (1969) Urban dynamics. Pegasus CommunicationsGoogle Scholar
  5. Forrester JW (1971) World dynamics. Wright-Allen PressGoogle Scholar
  6. Meadows DH, Meadows DL, Randers J, Behrens III WW et al (1972) The limits to growth. Potomac Associates—Universe Books. donellameadows.org/wp-content/userfiles/Limits-to-Growth-digital-scan-version.pdf. Accessed 23 Apr 2019
  7. Meadows DL, Behrens III WW, Meadows DH et al (1974) Dynamics of growth in a finite world. Wright Allen Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  8. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (2006) The historical statistics of Japan, 1 vol. Japan Statistical Association, Tokyo. English edition: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Statistics Bureau (2012) http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/chouki/index.htm. Accessed 30 Nov 2013
  9. World Bank (2012) World development indicators. http://data.worldbank.org

Copyright information

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.(emeritus), Sapporo City UniversitySapporoJapan

Personalised recommendations