System Dynamics Model of Demographic Transition

  • Toshihiko HaraEmail author
Part of the SpringerBriefs in Population Studies book series (BRIEFSPOPULAT)


Based on the historical analysis of Japan’s Demographic Transition (JDT) and using a System Dynamics (SD), approach referencing the World3 (Meadows et al. 1972), I have constructed the Demographic Transition Model of Japan (DTMJ). This model aims to explicate the Demographic Transition (DT) of Japan by logico-mathematical elucidation, with no purpose for exact estimation or projection. Therefore, the use of historical data will be kept at the minimum and the model is designed to reproduce the process of JDT endogenously. According to a causal model of JDT, this model includes six major factors: population-age structure, fertility, reproduction timing, social capital accumulation, lifespan, and migration. In this chapter, the basic concept of modeling, the relations among six major sectors, and the structure and functions of each sector will be analyzed in detail. And the variables and equations of DTMJ will be defined and discussed.


Japan’s demographic transition (JDT) System dynamics (SD) World3 Logico-mathematical model Demographic transition model of Japan (DTMJ) Basic concept of DTMJ Variables and equations of DTMJ Jay Wright Forrester Donella Meadows 


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Copyright information

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.(emeritus), Sapporo City UniversitySapporoJapan

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