Model Prediction and Inverse Simulation

  • Setsuya KurahashiEmail author
Part of the Agent-Based Social Systems book series (ABSS, volume 12)


A societal system study investigates a targeted social case in order to extract universal structures behind the scenes while modelling the extracted structures. By demonstrating that the investigated social case is explicable, this study verifies the validity of the theory. This paper introduces inference methods for agent model parameters and inverse simulation methods for verifying validity within a societal system study. This paper then attempts to describe that these methods correspond to the optimal control problem in a dynamic model. The latter part of this paper introduces the Chinese imperial examination model as the case of inductive inference based on an inverse simulation method and the labour market model as a case of deductive inference.


  1. Bourdieu P (1979) LA Distinction: Critique Sociale du Jugement. Editions de MinuitGoogle Scholar
  2. Epstein JM (2007) Generative social science: studies in agent-based computational modeling. Princeton University Press, New JerseyGoogle Scholar
  3. Gauch HG (2003) Scientific method in practice. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  4. Grimm V (2005) Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: lessons from ecology. Science 310:987–991CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Grimm V et al (2006) A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models. Ecol Model 198:115–126CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Grimm V et al (2006) The ODD protocol: a review and first update. Ecol Model 221:2760–2768CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Izumi K, Ikeda R, Yamamoto H, Suwa H, Okada I, Isozaki N, Hattori S (2013) Agent-based simulation as would-be worlds biowber: application to target marketing [in Japanese]. IEICE Trans Inf Syst 96(12):2877–2887Google Scholar
  8. Kurahashi S, Terano T (2001) Analyzing norm emergence in communal sharing via agent-based simulation [in Japanese]. IEICE Trans Inf Syst J-84-D1(8):1160–1168Google Scholar
  9. Kurahashi S, Terano T (2008) Historical simulation: a study of civil service examinations, family line, and cultural capital in China. Adv Complex Syst 11(2):187–198CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Kurahashi S, Minami U, Terano T (1999) Inverse simulation for analyzing emergent behaviors in artificial societies [in Japanese]. Trans Soc Instrum Control Eng 35(11):1454–1461CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Ljungqvist L, Sargent TJ (2004) Recursive macroeconomic theory, 2nd edn. The MIT Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  12. Mori K, Kurahashi S (2011) Optimising of support plans for new graduate employment market using reinforcement learning. Int J Comput Appl Technol 40(4):254–264CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Ono I, Sato H, Kobayashi S (1999) A real-coded genetic algorithm for function optimization using the unimodal normal distribution crossover [in Japanese]. J Jpn Soc Artif Intell 14(6):214–223Google Scholar
  14. Platt JR (1964) Strong inference. Sci New Ser 146(3642):347–353Google Scholar
  15. Railsback SF, Grimm V (2010) Agent-based and individual-based modeling. Princeton University Press, New JerseyGoogle Scholar
  16. Rand W (2012) When does simulated data match real data? Comparing model calibration functions using genetic algorithms. In: 4th World congress on social simulationGoogle Scholar
  17. Smith AM (2001) Alhacen’s theory of visual perception, a critical edition. Trans Am Philos Soc 91(4):5CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Sutton RS, Barto AG (1998) Reinforcement learning: an introduction. MIT Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  19. Takashima D, Takahashi S, Ohno T (2006) Agent-based model for analysis of customers’ features in target marketing [in Japanese]. J Jpn Soc Manag Inf 15(1):1–13Google Scholar
  20. Whewell W (1840) The philosophy of the inductive sciences, founded upon their history. John W. Parker, West Strand, LondonGoogle Scholar
  21. Yang C, Kurahashi S, Kurahashi K, Ono I, Terano T (2009) Agent-based simulation on women’s role in a family line on civil service examination in Chinese history. J Artif Soc Soc Simul 12(2):5, 1460–7425.
  22. Yang C, Kurahashi S, Ono I, Terano T (2012) Pattern-oriented inverse simulation for analyzing social problems: family strategies in civil service examination in imperial China. Adv Complex Syst 15(07):1250038CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of TsukubaTokyoJapan

Personalised recommendations