The Role of Fertility Policies in Intervening Population Aging: The Case of China
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Employing the innovative AECI method, the authors tested two assumptions to quantitatively assess the impact of China’s fertility planning policy on population aging over the period 1970–2005 and to prospectively analyze the effects of different degrees of relaxation of fertility policies made at different times on mitigating the economic pressure from population aging over the period 2005–2050. We found that contrary to the popular opinions, fertility planning policy is not only accelerating the process of aging in China, but also playing a key driving role in that process; China’s population control policies from 1970 to 2005 have played an even greater role in driving population aging than in controlling the total population size; China cannot completely eliminate the coming economic pressure from population aging by relaxing current fertility policies. Nevertheless, it is possible to seek an equilibrium point between controlling the total population size and mitigating the economic pressure of population aging. It is entirely possible for China to maintain the total population size within acceptable bounds and also alleviate the coming economic pressure from population aging by gradually relaxing fertility policies at appropriate times.
KeywordsPopulation aging Fertility policies Intervention
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