Advertisement

Brakes and Levers to Reduce the Dependence on Imports in the Middle East-North Africa Region

  • Chantal Le MouëlEmail author
  • Agneta Forslund
  • Elodie Marajo-Petitzon
  • Marc-Antoine Caillaud
  • Bertrand Schmitt
Chapter

Abstract

The two reference scenarios and the results analysed previously rely on mere extensions of past trends and do not take into account possible breaks or ruptures other than those of accentuated climate change. Naturally, then, they are ‘scenarios of inaction’ which typically illustrate what might happen in the Middle East-North Africa region if ‘nothing is done’. We should first note that many of our hypotheses could be challenged by more marked changes, upwards or downwards, of certain contextual elements. Thus our demographic hypotheses, based on the UN’s median projection, do not take into account their inherent high levels of uncertainty. For this world region, the UN’s high and low projections reveal a potential variability of about +/−15% around the median projection. Similarly, changes in diets could be more marked. The Middle East has been falling behind in dietary terms over the past few decades and it could catch up. Or there could be an accentuation of Western characteristics in diets due to eating behaviour among the fringes of the region’s youngest population. In light of these further changes in various components of the agricultural and food system of the region, we must also consider the levers that regional governments could use to try to reduce the extreme dependence on agricultural imports towards which most countries in the Middle East-North Africa region are moving.

References

  1. Agropolis International (2011) Sécurité alimentaire en Méditerranée à l’horizon 2030: aspects qualitatifs et quantitatifs (SAMAQQ). Etude du comité scientifique et technique d’Agropolis International, 68 pGoogle Scholar
  2. Ayadi R, Sessa C (2013) Scenarios assessment and transitions towards a sustainable Euro-Mediterranean in 2030. EU Foreign Policy, MEDPRO Policy PapersGoogle Scholar
  3. Bouwman AF, Van der Hoek KW, Eickhout B, Soenario I (2005) Exploring changes in world ruminant production systems. Agric Syst 84:121–153CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Brunelle T (2014) Climate change as a driver of land uses. Working paper for the Agrimonde-Terra Foresight, 37 pGoogle Scholar
  5. FAO (2011) Global food losses and food waste. Extent, causes and prevention. Study conducted for the International Congress Save Food! At Interpack2011, Düsseldorf, GermanyGoogle Scholar
  6. FAO (2012) Country Programming Framework (CPF) Government of Egypt 2012–2017, February 2012Google Scholar
  7. Hubert B (coord), Broin M, Fargeas E, Lacroix D (2011) Quelles recherches et quels partenariats pour la Méditerranée ? Atelier de Réflexion Prospective PARME, Rapport final, Agropolis International et ANRGoogle Scholar
  8. Jobbins G, Henley G (2015) Food in an uncertain future: the impacts of climate change on food security and nutrition in the Middle East and North Africa. Overseas Development Institute/World Food Programme, London/Rome, 31 pGoogle Scholar
  9. Müller C, Robertson RD (2014) Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling. Agric Econ 45:37–50CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. UNO (2015) World population prospects: the 2015 revision, key findings and advance tables. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division, New-York, 59 pGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Éditions Quæ 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Chantal Le Mouël
    • 1
    Email author
  • Agneta Forslund
    • 2
  • Elodie Marajo-Petitzon
    • 1
  • Marc-Antoine Caillaud
    • 3
  • Bertrand Schmitt
    • 3
  1. 1.UMR SMART-LERECOINRARennesFrance
  2. 2.UAR Département SAE2INRARennesFrance
  3. 3.DEPEINRAParisFrance

Personalised recommendations