Forecasting as a Selection Problem
In this chapter the forecasting of economic magnitudes is presented as a choice between alternative views on the future development. The manner in which the forecast is finally calculated from the available data is called forecasting procedure. The definitions are enumerated in Section 2.2. The existence of alternative views on the future is dealt with in Section 2.3 under the heading ‘Models’. In Section 2.4 a few words are devoted to the existing practice of forecasting. Finally Section 2.5 gives a survey of the selection problem.
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