Venture Analysis with a Microcomputer
Most engineering and business decisions are made in the environment of risk. The prevalent approach of calculating single values of objectives, based on likely, pessimistic or optimistic values of variables in the decision model, is incapable of distinguishing between high and low risk ventures.
VENTURER, an interactive and tolerant program, based on Monte Carlo simulation, has been developed on a microcomputer to aid decision making incorporating analysis of the risk and that of the sensitivity of the objective to the influencing factors. Application of the program is illustrated with an example of a problem in a civil engineering contracting firm.
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