Venture Analysis with a Microcomputer

  • G. Singh
Conference paper


Most engineering and business decisions are made in the environment of risk. The prevalent approach of calculating single values of objectives, based on likely, pessimistic or optimistic values of variables in the decision model, is incapable of distinguishing between high and low risk ventures.

VENTURER, an interactive and tolerant program, based on Monte Carlo simulation, has been developed on a microcomputer to aid decision making incorporating analysis of the risk and that of the sensitivity of the objective to the influencing factors. Application of the program is illustrated with an example of a problem in a civil engineering contracting firm.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Carter, E.E. (1972) What are the Risks in Risk Analysis. Harvard Business Review,July-August: 72–82.Google Scholar
  2. Dalkey, N. and Helmar, O. (1963) An Experimental Application of the Delphi Methods to the Use of Experts. Management Science, Vol.9: 458–467.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Hillier, F.S. (1969) The Evaluation of Risky Interrelated Investments. North-Holland.Google Scholar
  4. Hull, J.C. (1978) The Accuracy of the Means and Standard Deviations of Subjective Probability Distributions. Journal of R.S.S., Vol. 141, No. 1: 79–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Hussey, D.E. (1974) Corporate Planning: Theory and Practice. Pergamon Press, Oxford.Google Scholar
  6. Jones, G.T. (1972) Simulation and Business Decisions. Penguin.Google Scholar
  7. Leeming, J.J. (1963) Statistical Methods for Engineers. Blackie and sons.Google Scholar
  8. Pouliquen, L.W. (1970) Risk Analysis in Project Appraisal. World Bank Staff Occasional Paper No. 11. Johns Hopkins Press for the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.Google Scholar
  9. Spetzler, C.S. and Stael Von Holstein, CS. (1975) Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis. Management Science, Vol. 22: 340–358.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Wagle, B. (1967) A Statistical Analysis of Risk in Capital Investment Projects. Operational Research Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 1:13–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Wagner, H.M. (1975) Priciples of Operations Research. Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
  12. Woods, D.H.(1966) Improving Estimates that Involve Uncertainty. Harvard Business Review, July-August: 91–98.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1985

Authors and Affiliations

  • G. Singh
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Civil EngineeringUniversity of LeedsUK

Personalised recommendations