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Natural Growth Population Models

  • Drago Čepar
  • Erika Uršič
Conference paper

Abstract

Population projections by natural increase are studied. They forecast changes in population structure and size based on fertility, mortality and population age distribution, without considering migrations. In section 2, a well-known model of natural population growth based on one-year age-group data is described; in section 3, a simple, demonstrative linear difference equations model is introduced, the solution for which can be obtained analytically. With this simple model, the effects of different levels of fertility and mortality on long-term demographic processes are mathematically described and illustrated, which can be simulated by annual model.

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References

  1. Čepar D., Gosar L., Uršič E. (1992), Natural growth population projections, Operations research’ 91, P. Gritzmann, R. Hettich, R. Horst, E. Sachs editors, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg 1992, p.p. 305–308.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1993

Authors and Affiliations

  • Drago Čepar
    • 1
  • Erika Uršič
    • 1
  1. 1.Jožef Stefan InstituteUniversity of LjubljanaLjubljanaSlovenia

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