Population projections by natural increase are studied. They forecast changes in population structure and size based on fertility, mortality and population age distribution, without considering migrations. In section 2, a well-known model of natural population growth based on one-year age-group data is described; in section 3, a simple, demonstrative linear difference equations model is introduced, the solution for which can be obtained analytically. With this simple model, the effects of different levels of fertility and mortality on long-term demographic processes are mathematically described and illustrated, which can be simulated by annual model.
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- Čepar D., Gosar L., Uršič E. (1992), Natural growth population projections, Operations research’ 91, P. Gritzmann, R. Hettich, R. Horst, E. Sachs editors, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg 1992, p.p. 305–308.Google Scholar