Population Dynamics for the Federal Republic

  • Günter Köpp
Conference paper


For our research project on the long run prospects of social security we need a model to forecast the population of the Federal Republic. The most popular methods to project population distributions are the component and the cohort methods. In case of our database we use a component method, which is also used by the Federal Statistical Office. The technique of this projection method was developed by Bernadelli (1941), Lewis (1942) et. al.. Leslie at first showed it in a compact matrix form, so it is also called “Leslie-model”. A short description of the projection technique is shown in section 2 and some results of forecasting are in section 3.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1993

Authors and Affiliations

  • Günter Köpp
    • 1
  1. 1.Institut für Statistik und quantitative ÖkonomikUniversität der Bundeswehr HamburgHamburg 70Germany

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