Advertisement

On Triggering Large Earthquakes by Underground Nuclear Explosions - Statistical Methods of Detection, Possible Mechanism and Application

  • Alec Prozorov
Conference paper
Part of the NATO ASI Series book series (ASEN, volume 4)

Abstract

Energy of strongest nuclear explosions is comparable to that of large earthquakes. Consequently, if we claim the possibility of triggering earthquakes by explosions we are to demonstrate such possibility for large earthquakes first. The hypothesis of interdependence of major normal earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 8 for the first time was formulated by Benioff (1951) while he studied seismic energy release for the period of 1904–1950. Gutenberg found that annual rate of seismic energy in 1896-1906 was about three times as high as in the later period of 1907–1955. Keilis-Borok and Malinovskaya (1964) discovered, before the largest earthquakes in a region, the anomalous rise of the functional of the total area ruptured at the sources of background seismicity estimated by energy of earthquakes at 2/3 power summarized in a sliding time window. The size of the area responsible for the anomaly was several times larger than the rupture zone of the main event. The authors related the process of preparation of large earthquakes to “very large scale features of the development of the whole earth’s crust and sometimes of the uppermost mantle as well”. This approach was used later on for the development of complex algorithms of earthquake prediction by including into them such statistics of seismic regime as activity, deficit of activity, variation of seismicity, deviation from long term trend, concentration of sources and swarming (Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990, Keilis-Borok and Rotwain, 1990).

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Barenblatt GI (1990) On one scientific paper by AD Sakharov. Priroda (Nature) V 8: 120–121 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  2. Benioff H (1951) Global strain accumulation and release as revealed by great earthquakes. Bull Geol Soc Am. V 62: 331–338CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Beroza GC and Jordan TH (1990) Searching for slow and silent earthquakes using free oscillations. JGR V 95: 2485–2510CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bolshev LN and Smirnov NV (1968) Tables of mathematical statistics. M., Comp Center of Acad Sci USSR: 474Google Scholar
  5. Diao G Guo R and Li W (1988) Estimation of the predictive capability of “induced foreshocks”. J.Seismol.Res. V 11 No 5: 433–446 (in Chineese)Google Scholar
  6. Fedotov SA Gusev AA Zobin VM Kondratenko AM Chepkunas KE (1973) Ozernovsk earthquake and tsunami of November 22 (23), 1969. In: Earthquakes in the USSR in 1969, Nauka Publ., Moscow: 195–208 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  7. Gusev AA (1976) Earthquake-indicators and earthquake prediction. In: Seismicity and deep structure of Siberia and the Far East, Nauka, Novosibirsk: 241–247 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  8. Gusev AA Zobin VM Kondratenko AM Shumilina LS (1975) Ust-Kamchatsk earthquake of 15.XII. In: Earthquakes in the USSR in 1971, Nauka Publ., Moscow: 172–184 (in Russian)Google Scholar
  9. Gutenberg B (1956) Great earthquakes 1896–1903, EOS, Trans. AGU, 37: 608–614CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Jones AL (1992) The dynamic seismicity program. P.O.Box 6000, Binghampton, NY 13902Google Scholar
  11. Katok AP (1991) On the interrelation of crustal and upper mantle earthquakes at the south of Central Asia. Fizika Zemli V 10: 3–11Google Scholar
  12. Kaverina AN Prozorov AG (1995) On Ms:mb statistics for earthquakes and explosions and their relation to some source parameters. This volumeGoogle Scholar
  13. Keilis-Borok VI and Malinovskaya LN (1964) One regularity in the occurrence of strong earthquakes. JGR V 69: 3019–3024CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Keilis-Borok VI Podgaetskaya VM and Prozorov AG (1971) On the local statistics of earthquake catalog. Computational Seismology: V 5: 55–79Google Scholar
  15. Keilis-Borok VI and Kossobokov VG (1990) Premonitory activation of earthquake flow: algorithm M8. PEPI: V 61: 73–83Google Scholar
  16. Keilis-Borok VI and Rotwain IM (1990) Diagnosis of Time of Increased Probability of strong earthquake in different regions of the world: algorithm CN. PEPI V 61: 57–72Google Scholar
  17. Lander AV Bukchin BG Droznin DV and Kiryushin AV (1994) The tectonic environment and source parameters of Khailino (Koryakiya) earthquake of March 8, 1991: does a Beringia plate exist? Computational Seismology V 26: 103–122Google Scholar
  18. Mogi K (1974) Active periods in the world’s chief seismic belts. Tectonophysics V 22: 265–282CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Molchan GM and Dmitrieva OE (1992) On aftereffect of seismic events at small time delay and large distance. Doklady AN USSR V 325 N 1: 56–59Google Scholar
  20. Molchan GM and Dmitrieva OE (1992) Aftershock identification: methods and new approaches. Geophys J Int V 109: 501–516CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Nikolaev AV and Vereshchagina GM (1991) On the initiating of earthquakes by earthquakes. Doklady AN SSSR V 318 N 2: 320–324Google Scholar
  22. Nikolaev AV and Vereshchagina GM (1991) On the initiating of earthquakes by underground nuclear explosions. Doklady AN SSSR V 319 N 2: 333–337Google Scholar
  23. Nikolaev AV Ruff LJ and Zimakov LG (1995) Triggering of earthquakes by earthquakes. This volumeGoogle Scholar
  24. Pacheco JF Sykes LR and Scholz CH (1993) Nature of seismic coupling along simple plate boundaries of the subduction type. JGR V 98: 14133–14159CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Press F and Briggs P (1975) Chandler wobble, earthquakes, rotation and geomagnetic changes. Nature V 256: 270–273Google Scholar
  26. Prozorov AG (1975) Variations of seismic activity associated with large earthquakes. Computational Seismology V 8: 71–82Google Scholar
  27. Prozorov AG (1993) Long-range interaction of strong seismic events as a feature of intermittent character of plate dynamics. EOS Trans AGU V 74 N 16: 318Google Scholar
  28. Prozorov AG (1991) On the long range interaction among strong seismic events. In: Abstracts of IUGG-U3 “Major puzzling problems or paradoxes in contemporary geophysics”: 29.Google Scholar
  29. Prozorov AG and Rantsman YY (1972) Statistics of earthquakes and morphostruc-tures of the East of Central Asia. Doklady AN USSR V 207: 341–344Google Scholar
  30. Prozorov AG and Dziewonski AM (1992) A method of studying variations in the clustering property of earthquakes: application to the analysis of global seismicity. JGR V 87: 2829–2839CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Prozorov AG and Schreider SYu (1990) Real time test of the long-range aftershock algorithm as a tool for mid-term earthquake prediction in Southern California. PAGEOPH V 133 N 2: 329–347CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Reasenberg PA Hill AJ Michael RW Simpson RW Ellsworth WL Walter S Johnston M Smith R Nava SJ Arabasz WJ Pechman JC Gomberg J Brune JN DePolo D Beroza G Davis SD and Zollweg J (1992) EOS Trans AGU V 73 N 43: 392Google Scholar
  33. Richter CF (1952) Elementary Seismology. Freeman Press San FranciscoGoogle Scholar
  34. Sobolev GA Spetzler H Koltsov AV and Chelidze TL (1993) Experimental study of initiated unstable slip. In: of the seismic process and earthquake precursors V 1 M IPE: 38–47Google Scholar
  35. Sobolev GA (1994) On the relation between large earthquakes of Kuril-Kamchatka zone. Bull of Federal System of Seismol Obsery and Earthquake Pred Sp.Issue: 68–70Google Scholar
  36. Vilkovich EV Guberman ShA and Keilis-Borok VI (1974) Waves of tectonic deformations on large faults. Doklady of AN SSSR: 77–80Google Scholar
  37. Vilkovich EV Shnirman MG (1979) On one algorithm of detection of migration of large earthquakes. Computational Seismology V 12: 37–44Google Scholar
  38. Williams PL McGill SF Sieh KE Allen CR and Louie JN (1988) Triggered slip along the San Andreas Fault after the 8 July 1986 North Palm Springs Earthquake. Bull Seism Soc Am. V 78: 1112–1122Google Scholar
  39. Zimakov L and Ruff L (1992) Test of the hypothesis of far-ranging earthquake triggering. EOS Trans AGU V 73 N 14: 210Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-VerlagBerlin Heidelberg 1995

Authors and Affiliations

  • Alec Prozorov
    • 1
  1. 1.International Institute for Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical GeophysicsRussian Academy of SciencesMoscowRussian Federation

Personalised recommendations