Volcanic Hazard Estimations for Volcán de Colima

  • Servando De la Cruz-ReynaEmail author
  • Ana Teresa Mendoza-Rosas
  • Lorenzo Borselli
  • Damiano Sarocchi
Part of the Active Volcanoes of the World book series (AVOLCAN)


Volcán de Colima has one of North America’s highest rates of eruption, producing a wide range of eruptions ranging from effusive episodes to Plinian phases and sector collapses. Such activity potentially endangers over 350,000 people dwelling within the reach of volcanic products and runouts. To widen the hazard assessment derived from this activity, a statistical analysis of the volcano past events must include as many historically and geologically reported eruptions and debris avalanches as possible. However, in doing this, factors such as the complex dependence of flank collapse avalanches with the eruptive activity and other external factors, the increased underreporting with age and the uncertainties in the magnitudes, intensities, and dates of past activity, as well as the possible time dependence of the rate of eruptions must be accounted for. This chapter describes the statistical methods used to estimate the probabilities of different hazard scenarios for Volcán de Colima whilst addressing those factors.


Colima volcano Volcanic hazards Eruption statistics Volcano flank collapse Debris avalanches Extreme volcanic events 



We are indebted to the reviewers, Mark Bebbington and David Pyle, and to Nick Varley, editor of this volume, whose comments and suggestion greatly helped to improve this manuscript. This research has been partially financed by DGAPA-PAPIIT-UNAM project IN106312. We are grateful for this support.


  1. Akaike, H.: Information theory as an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In: Petrov, B.N., Csaki, F. (eds.) Second International Symposium on Information Theory, pp. 267–281. Akademiai Kiado, Budapest (1973)Google Scholar
  2. Akçiz, S.O., Grant Ludwig, L., Arrowsmith, J.R., Zielke, O.: Century-long average time intervals between earthquake ruptures of the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain. Calif. Geol. 38(9), 787–790 (2010). Scholar
  3. Arreola, J.M.: The recent eruptions of Colima Volcano (Edited and translated by F.Starr). J. Geol., 749–761 (1903)Google Scholar
  4. Arreola, J.M.: Catalogo de las erupciones antiguas del volcán de Colima. Mem. Rev. Soc. Cient. Antonio Alzate, Mexico 32(11–12), 443–481 (1915)Google Scholar
  5. Aspinall, W.P., Carniel, R., Jaquet, O., Woo, G., Hincks, T.: Using hidden multi-state Markov models with multi-parameter volcanic data to provide empirical evidence for alert level decision-support. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 153, 112–124 (2006)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bárcena, M.: Informe sobre el estado actual del Estado de Colima. In: El Estado de Colima. Periódico Oficial del Gobierno XXI(2), (January) (1887)Google Scholar
  7. Bebbington, M.S., Lai, C.D.: Statistical analysis of New Zealand volcanic occurrence data. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 74, 101–110 (1996a)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Bebbington, M.S., Lai, C.D.: On nonhomogeneous models for volcanic eruptions. Math. Geol. 28, 585–600 (1996b)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Bebbington, M.S.: Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov models. Geophys. J. Int. 171, 921–942 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Bebbington, M., Cronin, S., Chapman, I., Turner, M.: Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 177, 1055–1062 (2008)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Bebbington, M.: Trends and clustering in the onsets of volcanic eruptions. J. Geophys. Res. 115, B01203 (2010).
  12. Bebbington, M.: Models for temporal volcanic hazard. Stat. Volcanol. 1, 1–24 (2013). Scholar
  13. Beguería, S.: Uncertainties in partial duration series modelling of extremes related of the choice of the threshold value. J. Hydrol. 303, 215–230 (2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Borselli, L., Capra, L., Sarocchi, D., De la Cruz-Reyna, S.: Flank collapse scenarios at Volcán de Colima, Mexico: a relative instability analysis. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 208, 51–65 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Bretón, M., Ramírez, J., Navarro, C.: Summary of the historical eruptive activity of Volcán de Colima, México 1519–2000. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 117, 21–46 (2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Bronk Ramsey, C.: Dealing with outliers and offsets in radiocarbon dating. Radiocarbon 51(3), 1023–1045 (2009)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Capra, L.: Abrupt climatic changes as triggering mechanisms of massive volcanic collapses. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 155, 329–333 (2006)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Capra, L.: Volcanic natural dams: identification, stability and secondary effects. Nat. Hazards 43, 45–61 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Capra, L., Macías, J.L.: The cohesive Naranjo debris-flow deposit (10 km3). A dam breakout flow derived from the Pleistocene debris-avalanche deposit of Nevado de Colima Volcano (Mexico). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 117, 213–235 (2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Capra, L., Borselli, L., Varley, N., Gavilanes-Ruiz, J.C., Norini, G., Sarocchi, D., Caballero, L., Cortes, A.: Rainfall-triggered lahars at Volcán de Colima, Mexico: surface hydro-repellency as initiation process. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 189, 105–117 (2010)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Carey, S., Sigurdsson, H.: The intensity of plinian eruptions. Bull. Volcanol. 51, 28–40 (1989)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Carta, S., Figari, R., Sartoris, G., Sassi, E., Scandone, R.: A statistical model for vesuvius and its volcanological implications. Bull. Volcanol. 44, 129–151 (1981)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, 224 pp. Springer, London (2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Coles, S.G., Sparks, R.S.J.: Extreme value methods for modelling historical series of large volcanic magnitudes, In: Mader, H., Cole, S., Connor, C.B. (eds.), Statistics in Volcanology, Spec. Publ. of the Int. Assoc. of Volcanol. and Chem. of the Earth’s Inter., Geol. Soc., London, vol. 1, pp. 47–56 (2006)Google Scholar
  25. Cortés, A.: Depósitos de avalancha y flujos de escombros originados hace 3,600 años por el colapso del sector Suroeste del Volcán de Colima. M. Sc. Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Mexico City. 121 pp. (2002)Google Scholar
  26. Cortés, A., Garduño, V.H., Navarro, C., Komorowski, J.C., Saucedo, R., Macias, J.L., Gavilanes, J.C.: Carta Geológica del Complejo Volcánico de Colima, con Geología del Complejo Volcánico de Colima. Cartas Geológicas y Mineras 10, ISSN 0185–4798, 37 pp (2005)Google Scholar
  27. Cortés, A., Garduño, V.H., Macias, J.L., Navarro, C., Komorowski, J.C., Saucedo, R., Gavilanes, J.C.: Geologic mapping of the Colima volcanic complex (Mexico) and implications for hazard assessment. Geol. Soc. Am. Spec. Pap. 464, 249–264 (2010). Scholar
  28. Cortés, A., Macias, J.L., Capra, L., Garduño, V.H.: Sector collapse of the SW flank of Volcán de Colima, México. The 3600 yr BP La Lumbre-Los Ganchos debris avalanche and associated debris flows. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 197, 52–66 (2010b)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Cox, D.R., Lewis, P.A.W.: The Statistical Analysis of Series of Events, 285 pp. Methuen and Co., London (1966)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Davison, A.C., Smith, R.L.: Models for exceedances over high thresholds. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. 52(B), 393–442 (1990)Google Scholar
  31. Day, S.J.: Hydrothermal pore fluid pressure and the stability of porous permeable volcanoes. In: McGuire, W.J., Jones, A.P., Neuberg, J. (eds.) Volcano Instability on the Earth and Other Planets, Geological Society, London, Special Publications, vol. 110, pp. 77–93 (1996)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. De la Cruz-Reyna, S.: Poisson-distributed patterns of explosive activity. Bull. Volcanol. 54, 57–67 (1991)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. De la Cruz-Reyna, S.: Random patterns of activity of Colima Volcano, Mexico. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 55, 51–68 (1993)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. De la Cruz-Reyna, S.: Long-Term probabilistic analysis of future explosive eruptions. In: Scarpa, R., Tilling, R.I. (eds.) Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcanic Hazards, pp. 599–629. Springer, Berlín (1996)Google Scholar
  35. De la Cruz Reyna, S., Carrasco Núñez, G.: Probabilistic hazard analysis of Citlaltépetl (Pico de Orizaba) Volcano, Eastern Mexican volcanic belt. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 113, 307–318 (2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. De la Cruz Reyna, S., Tilling, R.: Scientific and public responses to the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, México: importance of an effective hazards warning system. J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res. 170, 121–134 (2008)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. De la Cruz-Reyna, S., Mendoza-Rosas, A.T.: An extreme event approach to volcanic hazard assessment. In: Chavez, M., Ghil, M., Urrutia-Fucugauchi, J. (eds.) Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling and Economics, ISBN: 978-1-119-15701-4, Wiley-Blackwell_AGU (2015)Google Scholar
  38. Deligne, N.I., Coles, S.G., Sparks, R.S.J.: Recurrence rates of large explosive volcanic eruptions. J. Geophys. Res. 115, B06203 (2010). Scholar
  39. Díaz, S.: Efemerides del Volcán de Colima según las observaciones practicadas en los Observatorios de Zapotlan y Colima de 1893 a 1905. Sria. de Fomento, México (1906)Google Scholar
  40. Dzierma, Y., Wehrmann, H.: Eruption time series statistically examined: probabilities of future eruptions at Villarrica and Llaima volcanoes, Southern Volcanic Zone. Chile. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 193, 82–92 (2010)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Dzurisin, D.: Geodetic Detection of Inflating Stratovolcanoes: A Potencial Breakthrough for Mitigating Volcanic Hazards in the 21st Century. Eos 79, 973 pp (1998)Google Scholar
  42. Elsworth, D., Voight, B.: Dike intrusion as a trigger for large earthquakes and the failure of volcano flanks. J. Geophys. Res. 100, 6005–6024 (1996)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Fedotov, S.A.: Estimates of heat and pyroclast discharge by volcanic eruptions based upon the eruption cloud and steady plume observations. J. Geodyn. 3, 275–302 (1985)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Gorshkov, G.S.: Directed volcanic blasts. Bull. Volcanol. 26, 83–88 (1963)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Ho, C.H.: Bayesian analysis of volcanic eruptions. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 43, 91–98 (1990)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Ho, C.H.: Time trend analysis of basaltic volcanism for the Yucca Mountain site. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 46, 61–72 (1991)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Ho, C.H., Smith, E.I., Keenan, D.L.: Hazard area and probability of volcanic disruption of the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA. Bull. Volcanol. 69, 117–123 (2006)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Hurst, T., Smith, W.: Volcanic ashfall in New Zealand—probabilistic modelling for multiple sources. N. Z. J. Geol. Geophys. 53, 1–14 (2010)Google Scholar
  49. Jaquet, O., Löw, S., Martinelli, B., Dietrich, V., Gilby, D.: Estimation of volcanic hazards based on cox stochastic processes. Phys. Chem. Earth 25, 571–579 (2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Jaquet, O., Carniel, R.: Estimation of volcanic hazard using geostatistical models. In: Mader, H.M., Coles, S.G., Connor, C.B., Connor, L.J. (eds.) Statistics in Volcanology. IAVCEI Publications n. 1, pp. 89–103. Geological Society, London (2006)Google Scholar
  51. Keefer, D.K.: Landslides caused by earthquakes. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 95, 406–421 (1984)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Kiryanov, V.Y., Koloskov, A.V.: Radiocarbon Dating of Volcanic Formations and the Properties of the Chemical, Quantitative-Mineral and Granulometric Composition of Rocks from the Chichinautzin Zone and Colima Volcano (based on the results of study of volcanic products sampled in Mexico in Summer 1984). Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Far East Scientific Centre, Institute of Volcanology, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, pp. 1–71 (1986)Google Scholar
  53. Klein, F.W.: Patterns of historical eruptions at Hawaiian volcanoes. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 12, 1–35 (1982)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Komorowski, J.-C., Navarro, C., Cortés, A., Siebe, C., Rodriguez, S.: Multiple collapse of Volcán Colima, Mexico, since 10,000 y. BP: Implications for Eruptive Style, Magma Yield, Edifice Stability, and Volcanic Risk. (Abstract), International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior, General Assembly, Canberra, Australia, 25 Sept–1 Oct 1993, Abstract Volume, p. 60 (1993)Google Scholar
  55. Komorowski, J.-C., Cortés, A., Gavilanes, J.C., Navarro, C.: Relationships Between Repetitive Edifice Collapse, Emplacement of Debris Avalanche Deposits, and Volcanogenic Sedimentation at Colima Volcano. IAVCEI General Assembly, Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, 19–25 Jan 1997, 107 (1997a)Google Scholar
  56. Komorowski, J.-C., Navarro, C., Cortés, A., Saucedo Girón, R., Gavilanes, J.C., Siebe, C., Espindola, J.-M., Rodriguez, S.: The Colima Volcanic Complex: Part I: Quaternary Multiple Debris-Avalanche Deposits; Part II: Historical Pyroclastic Sequences (1913, 1991, 1994). International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior, General Assembly, Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, 19–25 Jan 1997, Fieldtrip Guidebook No. 3, 37 pp. 42 figs, appendix (1997b)Google Scholar
  57. Luhr, J.F., Carmichael, I.S.E.: The Colima Volcanic Complex, Mexico; Part III. Ash and scoria fall deposits from the upper slopes of Volcán Colima. Contrib. Mineral. Petrol. 80, 262–275 (1982)Google Scholar
  58. Luhr, J.F., Carmichael, I.S.E.: Petrological monitoring of cyclical eruptive activity at Volcan Colima. Mexico. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 42, 235–260 (1990)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Luhr, J.F., Carmichael, I.S.E.: Geology of Volcan de Colima. Boletín Instituto Geología, Univ. Nac. Auton. Mex. 107, 101 pp. (1990b)Google Scholar
  60. Luhr, J.F., Prestegaard, K.L.: Caldera formation at Volcán Colima, Mexico by a large Holocene debris avalanche deposit. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 35, 335–348 (1988)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Luhr, J.F., Navarro, C.: Guía de Excursión al Volcán Nevado de Colima, Octava Reunión Internacional, Volcán de Colima, pp. 1–50 (2002)Google Scholar
  62. Luhr, J.F., Navarro-Ochoa, C., Savov, I.P.: Tephrochronology, petrology and geochemistry of Late-Holocene pyroclastic deposits from Volcan de Colima, Mexico. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 197, 1–32 (2010). Scholar
  63. Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Gasparini, P., Newhall, C., Boschi, E.: Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazards at Mount Vesuvius. J. Geophys. Res. 109, B11201 (2004). Scholar
  64. Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Selva, J.: BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting. Bull. Volcanol. 70, 623–632 (2008)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Marzocchi, W., Bebbington, M.S.: Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales. Bull. Volcanol. 74, 1777–1805 (2012). Scholar
  66. Markov, S., Alt, R.: Stochastic arithmetic: addition and multiplication by scalars. Appl. Numer. Math. 50, 475–488 (2004)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  67. McGuire, W.J.: Volcano instability: a review of contemporary themes. In: McGuire, W.J., Jones, A.P., Neuberg, J. (eds.) Volcano Instability on the Earth and Other Planets: Geological Society Special Publication, vol. 110, pp. 1–23 (1996)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Medina-Martínez, F.: Analysis of the eruptive history of the Volcán de Colima, Mexico (1560–1980). Geofís. Inter. 22, 157–178 (1983)Google Scholar
  69. Mendoza-Rosas, A.T., De la Cruz-Reyna, S.: A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: applications to active polygenetic volcanoes. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 176, 277–290 (2008). Scholar
  70. Mendoza-Rosas, A.T., De la Cruz-Reyna, S.: A mixture of exponentials distribution for simple and precise assessment of the volcanic hazard. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 9, 425–431 (2009). Scholar
  71. Mendoza-Rosas, A.T., De la Cruz-Reyna, S.: Hazard estimates for El Chichón volcano, Chiapas, Mexico: a statistical approach for complex eruptive histories. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 10, 1159–1170 (2010). Scholar
  72. Mooser, F.: Los Volcanes de Colima. Boletín Instituto Geología, Univ. Nac. Auton. Mex. 61, 49–71 (1961)Google Scholar
  73. Moriya, I.: “Bandaian eruption” and landforms associated with it. In: Collection of articles in memory of retirement of Prof. K. Nishimura from Tohoku University. Fac. Sci. Tohoku Univ., Sendai, pp. 214–219 (in Japanese with English abstract) (1980)Google Scholar
  74. Mulargia, F., Tinti, S.: Seismic sample areas defined from incomplete catalogues: an application to the Italian territory. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 40, 273–300 (1985)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Mulargia, F., Gasperini, P., Tinti, S.: Identifying different regimes in eruptive activity: an application to Etna Volcano. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 34, 89–106 (1987)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  76. Navarro, C., Luhr, J.: Late-Holocene tephrochronology at the Colima Volcanic Complex, México, Séptima Reunión Internacional Volcán de Colima, (abstract, p. 44). Marzo, 6–10 (2000)Google Scholar
  77. Newhall, C.G., Self, S.: The volcanic explosivíty index (VEI): an estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism. J. Geophys. Res. 87C2, 1231–1238 (1982)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. Newhall, C.G., Hoblitt, R.P.: Constructing event trees for volcanic crises. Bull. Volcanol. 64, 3–20 (2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Ordóñez, E.: Les derniéres eruptions du Volcán de Colima, pp. 99–103. Mem. Soc. Cient. Antonio Alzate, Mexico (1903)Google Scholar
  80. Pyle, D.M.: Mass and energy budgets of explosive volcanic eruptions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 563–566 (1995)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  81. Pyle, D.M.: Forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events. Geology 26, 367–370 (1998)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  82. Pyle, D.M.: Sizes of volcanic eruptions. In: Sigurdsson, H., Hughton, B., McNutt, S.R., Rymer, H., Stix, J. (eds.) Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, pp. 263–269. Academic Press, San Diego (2000)Google Scholar
  83. Reiss, R.D., Thomas, M.: Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values, 2nd edn, 316 pp. Birkhauser, Basel (2001)Google Scholar
  84. Reyment, R.A.: Statistical analysis of some volcanologic data. Regarded as series of point events. PAGEOPH 74(3), 57–77 (1969)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  85. Robin, C., Camus, G., Cantagrel, J.M., Gourgaud, A., Mossand, P., Vincent, P.M., Aubert, M., Dorel, J., Murray, J.B.: Les Volcans de Colima (Mexique). Bulletin P.I.R.P.S.E.V.-C.N.R.S.-I.N.A.G. 87, 1–98 (1984)Google Scholar
  86. Robin, C., Mossand, P., Camus, G., Cantagrel, J.M., Gourgaud, A., Vincent, P.: Eruptive history of the Colima Volcanic Complex (México). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 31, 99–113 (1987)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  87. Robin, C., Camus, G., Gourgaud, A.: Eruptive and magmatic cycles at Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 45, 209–225 (1991)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. Rodríguez-Elizarrarás, S., Siebe, C., Komorowski, J.-C., Espíndola, J.M., Saucedo, R.: Field observations of pristine block- and ash-flow deposits emplaced April 16–17, 1991 at Volcán de Colima, Mexico. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 48, 40–56 (1991)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  89. Roverato, M., Capra, L., Sulpizio, R., Norini, G.: Stratigraphic reconstruction of two debris avalanche deposits at Colima Volcano (Mexico): insights into pre-failure conditions and climate influence. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 207(1–2), 33–46 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  90. Sarocchi, D., Sulpizio, R., Macías, J.L., Saucedo, R.: The 17 July 1999 block-and-ash flow at Colima volcano: new insights on volcanic granular flows from textural analysis. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 204, 40–56 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  91. Saucedo, R., Macías, J.L., Sheridan, M.F., Bursik, M.I., Komorowski, J.C.: Modeling of pyroclastic flows of Colima Volcano, Mexico: implications for hazard assessment. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 139(1–2), 103–115 (2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  92. Saucedo, R., Macías, J.L., Gavilanes, J.C., Arce, J.L., Komorowski, J.C., Gardner, J.E., Valdez-Moreno, G.: Eyewitness, stratigraphy, chemistry, and eruptive dynamics of the 1913 Plinian eruption of Volcán de Colima, México. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 191, 149–166 (2010)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  93. Saucedo, R., Macías, J.L., Gavilanes, J.C., Arce, J.L., Komorowski, J.C., Gardner, J.E., Valdez-Moreno, G.: Corrigendum to eyewitness, stratigraphy, chemistry, and 1913 Plinian eruption of Volcán de Colima, Mexico. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 207, 67 (2011)Google Scholar
  94. Savov, I.P., Luhr, J.F., Navarro-Ochoa, C.: Petrology and geochemistry of lava and ash erupted from Volcán de Colima, Mexico, during 1998–2005. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 174, 241–256 (2008)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  95. Settle, M., McGetchin, T.R.: Statistical analysis of persistent explosive activity at Stromboli, 1971: implications for eruption prediction. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 8, 45–58 (1980)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  96. Sheridan, M.F., Bonnard, C., Carreno, C., Siebe, C., Strauch, W., Navarro, M., Calero, J.C., Trujilo, N.B.: Report on the 30 October 1998 rock fall/ avalanche and breakout flow of Casita Volcano, Nicaragua, triggered by Hurricane Mitch. Lanslide News 12, 2–4 (1999)Google Scholar
  97. Siebe, C., Rodríguez-Elizarrarás, S., Stoopes, G., Komorowski, J.C., Sheridan, M.F.: How Many Debris Avalanche Deposits at the Colima volcanix complex or: Quo Vadimus. (abstract), Universidad de Colima, Tercera Reunión Nacional “Volcán de Colima y Segunda Reunión Internacional de Vulcanología. Colima, 15 (1992)Google Scholar
  98. Siebert, L., Glicken, H., Ui, T.: Volcanic hazards from Bezimianny- and Bandai-type eruptions. Bull. Volcanol. 49, 435–459 (1987)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  99. Siebert, L., Simkin, T.: Volcanoes of the World: an Illustrated Catalog of Holocene Volcanoes and their Eruptions. Smithsonian Institution, Global Volcanism Program Digital Information Series, GVP-3, ( (2002)
  100. Simkin, T., Siebert, L.: Volcanoes of the World, 2nd edn. Geoscience Press, Tucson, Ariz (1994)Google Scholar
  101. Simkin, T., Siebert, L.: Earth’s volcanoes and eruptions: an overview. In: Sigurdsson, H. (ed.) Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, pp. 249–261. Academic Press, San Diego (2000)Google Scholar
  102. Smithsonian Institution. Colima. Bull. Glob. Volcanism Netw. 30(6) (2005)Google Scholar
  103. Smithsonian Institution. Colima. Bull. Glob. Volcanism Netw. 31(3) (2006)Google Scholar
  104. Sobradelo, R., Martí, J., Mendoza-Rosas, A.T., Gómez, G.: Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain) using Extreme value theory. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 11, 2741–2753 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  105. Solow, A.R.: An empirical Bayes analysis of volcanic eruptions. Math. Geol. 33(1), 95–102 (2001)Google Scholar
  106. Sulpizio, R., Capra, L., Sarocchi, D., Saucedo, R., Gavilanes, J.C., Varley, N.: Predicting the block and ash flow inundation areas at Fuego de Colima volcano (Colima, Mexico) based on the present day status. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 193, 49–66 (2010)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  107. Tello, A. (Fray).: Cronica Miscelánea y Conquista espiritual y Temporal de la Santa Provincia de Jalisco en el Nuevo Reino de la Galicia y Nueva Vizcaína y Descubrimiento del Nuevo México. López Portillo y Rojas, J. (ed.) Guadalajara Jal, México (1650)Google Scholar
  108. Turner, M.B., Cronin, S.J., Bebbington, M.S., Platz, T.: Developing probabilistic eruption forecasts for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki. N. Z. Bull. Volcanol. 70, 507–515 (2008). Scholar
  109. Varley, N.R., Johnson, J., Ruiz, M., Reyes-Dávila, G.A., Martin, K.: Applying statistical analysis to understanding the dynamics of volcanic explosions. In: Mader, H.M., Coles, S.G., Connor, C.B., Connor, L.J. (eds.) Statistics in Volcanology. Special publication of IAVCEI, pp. 57–76 (2006)Google Scholar
  110. Vignes, J.: A stochastic arithmetic for reliable scientific computation. Math. Comp. Sim. 35, 233–261 (1993)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  111. Waitz, P.: Datos históricos y bibliográficos acerca del Volcán de Colima. Mem. Rev. Soc. Cient. Antonio Alzate, Mexico 53, 349–384 (1932)Google Scholar
  112. Walker, G.P.L.: The Taupo pumice: product of the most powerful known (Ultraplinian) eruption? J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 8, 69–94 (1980)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  113. Wehrmann, H., Dzierma, Y.: Applicability of statistical eruption analysis to the geologic record of Villarrica and Lanín volcanoes, Southern Volcanic Zone, Chile. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 200, 99–115 (2011). Scholar
  114. Wickman, F.E.: Repose period patterns of volcanoes, 5. General discussion and a tentative stochastic model. Ark. Mineral. Geol. 4, 351–367 (1965)Google Scholar
  115. Wickman, F.E.: Markov models of repose—period patterns of volcanoes. In: Merriam, D.F. (ed.) Random Processes in Geology, pp. 135–161. Springer, Berlín (1976)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  116. Zernack, A.V., Cronin, S.J., Bebbington, M.S., Price, R.C., Smith, I.E.M., Stewart, R.B., Procter, J.N.: Forecasting catastrophic stratovolcano collapse, a model based on Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand. Geology (published online 2012). Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Servando De la Cruz-Reyna
    • 1
    Email author
  • Ana Teresa Mendoza-Rosas
    • 2
  • Lorenzo Borselli
    • 3
  • Damiano Sarocchi
    • 3
  1. 1.Instituto de GeofísicaUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMéxico D.F.Mexico
  2. 2.CONACYT – Centro de Ingeniería y Desarrollo IndustrialQuerétaroMexico
  3. 3.Instituto de Geologia/Fac. de IngenieríaUniversidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí–UASLPSan Luis PotosíMexico

Personalised recommendations