Estimating the Contingency of R&D Project in a Fuzzy Environment
This paper develops a fuzzy model that considers the uncertain attributes of change orders in a research and development (R&D) project. It is assumed that the arrival times of change orders follow a fuzzy renewal process. The contingency based on the confidence level offered by the decision-maker is estimated by fuzzy simulation. Furthermore, the effect of schedule delays which increase further the project cost and schedule is considered explicitly. Finally, three numerical examples are presented to illustrate the application of the proposed model.
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