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The Nature of Survey Expectations

  • Michael P. Clements
Chapter
Part of the Palgrave Texts in Econometrics book series (PTEC)

Abstract

Forecasts from surveys are assumed to reflect probabilistic beliefs. This interpretation is reinforced by the reporting of probability distributions alongside the point forecasts. Sources of survey expectations are discussed, as are the nature of the forecasts: fixed-event and rolling-event forecasts. Surveys such as the US Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) report the responses of the individual forecasters, although these are often aggregated for subsequent analyses, and attention focuses on the aggregate or consensus forecast. Problems of interpreting temporal variation in the aggregate forecast are discussed, particularly when there is entry and exit, or occasional non-response by active participants, resulting in changing composition of the panel. When individuals possess private information, there may be better ways of aggregating forecasts than traditional techniques, such as taking the mean or median.

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Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Michael P. Clements
    • 1
  1. 1.ICMA Centre, Henley Business SchoolUniversity of ReadingWheatleyUK

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