Evaluation Step 2: How Optimal Is the Sequencing of the Reform?
MENA countries followed different reform paths in terms of the number of steps taken, the length of the process and the sequencing. A Herfindhal-Hirschman index (HHI) analysis shows that there are only two countries in the region where the dominant player is not the national utility or any other government-owned entity: Abu Dhabi and Morocco. In MENA, despite market concentration, wholesale prices are not volatile and kept at a relatively low level. However, increasing industry consolidation could translate into potentially higher wholesale tariffs, and higher subsidies. The dual market model of dual firms could be the response of developing countries to the “textbook model” as it was implemented in the UK or New ZealandSome countries are moving towards that pragmatic direction with the creation (re-creation) of national champions, staffed with highly educated technocrats, and partially publicly-listed. A strong regulation to prevent market abuse is key.