Probabilistic Assessment of Seismic Risk of Dwelling Buildings of Barcelona. Implication for the City Resilience

  • Armando Aguilar-MeléndezEmail author
  • Lluis G. Pujades
  • Josep De la Puente
  • Alex H. Barbat
  • Mario G. Ordaz S.
  • Sergio Natan González-Rocha
  • Carlos M. Welsh-Rodríguez
  • Héctor E. Rodríguez-Lozoya
  • Nieves Lantada
  • Luis Ibarra
  • Alejandro García-Elias
  • Amelia Campos-Rios
Part of the Resilient Cities book series (RCRUT)


The knowledge of seismic risk of buildings can contribute to increase the resilience of cities. In the present work a new assessment of the seismic risk of dwelling buildings of Barcelona was done. This assessment was performed according to a probabilistic methodology, which is summarized in the following steps: (1) performing a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) to obtain exceedance rates of macroseismic intensities; (2) performing a probabilistic seismic vulnerability assessment (PSVA) of each building in order to determine probability density functions that describe the variation of a vulnerability index; and (3) performing a probabilistic seismic risk assessment (PSRA) to generate seismic risk curves in terms of frequencies of exceedance of damage states. In the present work 69,982 dwelling buildings of Barcelona were assessed. According to the results the percentage of dwelling buildings of Barcelona that have a probability equal or greater than 1% of suffer partial collapse in the next 50 years is a value between 0% and 34.29%. A value of 0% corresponds to the results of seismic risk obtained for the case where regional vulnerability modifiers were not considered during the procedure to assess the seismic vulnerability of buildings and 34.29% correspond to the case where regional vulnerability modifiers were considered. For the same two options, the losses due to the physical damage of the dwelling buildings of Barcelona assessed for an exposure time of 50 years, could vary from 807.3 to 1739.4 millions of euros, respectively. Finally, possible uses of the seismic risk results computed in the present work are mentioned.


Seismic risk Urban zones Vulnerability index Barcelona 



Thanks to University of Veracruz, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, CONACYT and PRODEP. This research has been partially funded by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) of the Spanish Government and by the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) of the European Union (UE) through projects referenced as: CGL2011-23621 and CGL2015-65913 -P (MINECO /FEDER, UE).


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Armando Aguilar-Meléndez
    • 1
    Email author
  • Lluis G. Pujades
    • 2
  • Josep De la Puente
    • 3
  • Alex H. Barbat
    • 4
  • Mario G. Ordaz S.
    • 5
  • Sergio Natan González-Rocha
    • 6
  • Carlos M. Welsh-Rodríguez
    • 7
  • Héctor E. Rodríguez-Lozoya
    • 8
  • Nieves Lantada
    • 2
  • Luis Ibarra
    • 9
  • Alejandro García-Elias
    • 10
  • Amelia Campos-Rios
    • 11
  1. 1.Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC)Barcelona, Spain & Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universidad VeracruzanaPoza RicaMexico
  2. 2.Division of Geotechnical Engineering and Geosciences, Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya. BarcelonaTECHBarcelonaSpain
  3. 3.Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC)BarcelonaSpain
  4. 4.Division of Mechanics, Continuous Media and structures, Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya. BarcelonaTECHBarcelonaSpain
  5. 5.Engineering InstituteUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoCiudad de MéxicoMexico
  6. 6.Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain & Faculty of Chemical SciencesUniversidad VeracruzanaPoza RicaMexico
  7. 7.Earth Sciences CenterUniversidad VeracruzanaXalapaMexico
  8. 8.Faculty of EngineeringUniversidad Autónoma de SinaloaLos MochisMexico
  9. 9.Department of Civil & Environmental EngineeringThe University of UtahSalt Lake CityUSA
  10. 10.Faculty of Civil EngineeringUniversidad VeracruzanaPoza RicaMexico
  11. 11.Services of EngineeringTuxpanMexico

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