Globalisation and Finance at the Crossroads
The authors argue that four issues will condition how globalisation evolves over coming decades: (i) the management of financial risk in advanced countries; (ii) the long-term asset return implications of distorted policy; (iii) the outcome of China’s ambitious attempt to build a vast alternative economic region (the Belt and Road) based on principles opposed to those prevailing in advanced countries; and (iv) the building financial risks in China. They point out that China has taken a longer-term strategic view but relies less on markets and sound governance. They conclude that how this plays out will depend on which part of the world turns out to have the least coherent approach. Extreme outcomes will be likely if things do not go well in either of these parts of the world.
- Blundell-Wignall, A., & Roulet, C. (2013). “Capital Controls on Inflows, the Global Financial Crisis and Economic Growth: Evidence for Emerging Economies”. OECD Journal, Financial Market Trends, (2), 1–14.Google Scholar
- Buffet, W. (2001). Warren Buffet on the Stock Market (with Carol Loomis). Fortune Magazine. Available at: http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm.
- Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). The Econometrics of Financial Markets. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
- Feldstein, M., & Bacchetta, P. (1991). National Saving and International Investment. In B. D. Bernheim & J. B. Shoven (Eds.), National Saving and Economic Performance, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 201–226.Google Scholar
- Feldstein, M., & Horioka, C. (1980, June). Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows. The Economic Journal, 90, 314–329.Google Scholar
- Fukuyama, F. (1989). The End of History. National Interest, Summer.Google Scholar
- Kendall, R., & Lees, J. (2017, June). The Chinese Interbank Repo Market. Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, 75–86.Google Scholar
- Ma, J., Hong, H., Jia, Y., Zhang, S., Yin, L. H., & An, G. (2016). The Role of Yield Curves in Monetary Policy Transmission (PBOC Working Paper No. 2016/1). People’s Bank of China.Google Scholar
- McKinnon, R. I. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
- Obstfelt, M. (1986, January). Capital Mobility in the World Economy: Theory and Measurement. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 24(1), 55–103.Google Scholar
- OECD & EUIPO. (2016). Trade in Counterfeit and Pirated Goods: Mapping the Economic Impact. Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
- Ostry, J. D., Ghosh, A. R., Habermeier, K., Chamon, M., Qureshi, M. S., & Reinhardt, D. B. S. (2010). Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls. IMF Staff Position Note 10/04, 19 February. Washington: International Monetary Fund. Available at: www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2010/spn1004.pdf.
- Patil, S. (2015, May), “OBOR and India’s Security Concerns”. Gateway House. Available at: http://www.gatewayhouse.in/security-implications-of-chinas-transnational-corridors/.
- Summers, L., & Carroll, C. (1987). Why Is U.S. National Saving So Low? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 18(2), 607–642 (Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution).Google Scholar
- UK Parliament. (2009, March). Memorandum from Deutsche Bank. Available at: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200809/cmselect/cmtreasy/144/144iii25.htm.
- Williamson, J. (2004, 24–25 September). A Short History of the Washington Consensus. Paper Commissioned by Fundación CIDOB for a Conference “From the Washington Consensus Towards a New Global Governance,” Barcelona.Google Scholar