Probabilistic Hazard of Tsunamis Generated by Submarine Landslides in the Cook Strait Canyon (New Zealand)
Cook Strait Canyon is a submarine canyon that lies within ten kilometres of Wellington, the capital city of New Zealand. The canyon walls are covered with scars from previous landslides which could have caused local tsunamis. Palaeotsunami evidence also points to past tsunamis in the Wellington region. Furthermore, the canyon’s location in Cook Strait means that there is inhabited land in the path of both forward- and backward-propagating waves. Tsunamis induced by these submarine landslides pose hazard to coastal communities and infrastructure but major events are very uncommon and the historical record is not extensive enough to quantify this hazard. The combination of infrequent but potentially very consequential events makes realistic assessment of the hazard challenging. However, information on both magnitude and frequency is very important for land use planning and civil defence purposes. We use a multidisciplinary approach bringing together geological information with modelling to construct a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment of submarine landslide-generated tsunami. Although there are many simplifying assumptions used in this assessment, it suggests that the Cook Strait open coast is exposed to considerable hazard due to submarine landslide-generated tsunamis. We emphasise the uncertainties involved and present opportunities for future research.
KeywordsProbabilistic tsunami submarine landslides Cook Strait
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Abadie, S. M., Harris, J. C., Grilli, S. T., & Fabre, R. (2012). Numerical modeling of tsunami waves generated by the flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja Volcano (La Palma, Canary Islands): Tsunami source and near field effects. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 117, C05030. doi: 10.1029/2011JC007646.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Anonymous (1908). Miramar relics, Evening Post, Vol. v. LXXVI issue 108: Wellington.Google Scholar
- Clark, K. J., Hayward, B. W., Cochran, U. A., Wallace, L. M., Power, W. L., & Sabaa, A. T. (2015). Evidence for Past Subduction Earthquakes at a Plate Boundary with Widespread Upper Plate Faulting: Southern Hikurangi Margin. New Zealand: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(3), 1661–1690.Google Scholar
- Downes, G. (2014) New Zealand Tsunami Database: Historical and Modern Records. http://data.gns.cri.nz/tsunami/. Accessed 17 May 2015.
- Enet, F., Grilli, S. T., & Watts, P. (2003) Laboratory experiments for tsunamis generated by underwater landslide: comparison with numerical modeling. In Proceedings of the thirteenth (2003) International offshore and polar engineering conference (pp. 372–379).Google Scholar
- Geist, E., & ten Brink, U. S. (2012) NRC/USGS Workshop Report: Landslide Tsunami Probability.Google Scholar
- Gisler, G., Weaver, R., & Gittings, M. (2006). SAGE calculations of the tsunami threat from La Palma. Science of Tsunami Hazards, 24, 288–301.Google Scholar
- Gonzalez, F. I., Geist, E. L., Jaffe, B., Kanoglu, U., Mofjeld, H., Synolakis, C. E., Titov, V. V., Arcas, D., Bellomo, D., Carlton, D., Horning, T., Johnson, J., Newman, J., Parsons, T., Peters, R., Peterson, C., Priest, G., Venturato, A., Weber, J., Wong, F., & Yalciner, A. (2009). Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near- and far-field seismic sources. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 114, C11023. doi: 10.1029/2008JC005132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Harbitz, C. B., Løvholt, F., Pedersen, G., & Masson, D. G. (2006). Mechanisms of tsunami generation by submarine landslides: a short review. Norwegian Journal of Geology, 86(3), 255–264.Google Scholar
- Kajiura, K. (1963). The leading wave of the tsunami: Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute Vol. 41, pp. 535–571.Google Scholar
- Micallef, A., Mountjoy, J. J., Canals, M., & Lastras, G. (2012). Deep-seated bedrock landslides and submarine canyon evolution in an active tectonic margin: Cook Strait, New Zealand. In Y. Yamada, K. Kawamura, K. Ikehara, Y. Ogawa, R. Urgeles, D. Mosher, J. Chaytor, & M. Strasser (Eds.), Submarine mass movements and their consequences (Vol. 31, pp. 201–212). Netherlands: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Mueller, C., Mountjoy, J. J., Power, W. L., Lane, E. M., & Wang, X. (2016) Towards a spatial probabilistic submarine landslide hazard model for submarine canyons. In G. Lamarche, J. Mountjoy, S. Bull, T. Hubble, S. Krastel, E. Lane, A. Micallef, L. Moscardelli, C. Mueller, I. Pecher & S. Woelz, (eds.) Submarine mass movements and their consequences, Vol. 41 (pp. 589–597). Springer, Berlin.Google Scholar
- Okada, Y. (1985). Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 75(4), 1135–1154.Google Scholar
- Pedersen, G. (2008). Modeling runup with depth integrated equation models. In P. L. F. Liu, H. Yeh, C. Synolakis (Ed.), Advanced Numerical Models for Simulating Tsunami Waves and Runup. Advances in Coastal and Ocean Engineering (Vol. 10, pp. 3–41). Singapore: World Scientific.Google Scholar
- Power, W. L. (2013). Review of Tsunami Hazard in New Zealand (2013 Update), GNS Science Consultancy Report 2013/131.Google Scholar
- Strasser, M., Koelling, M., Ferreira, C. d. S., Fink, H. G., Fujiwara, T., Henkel, S., Ikehara, K., Kanamatsu, T., Kawamura, K., Kodaira, S., Roemer, M., Wefer, G., SO219A, R. V. S. C., & scientists, J. C. M.-E. (2013). A slump in the trench: tracking the impact of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Geology, v. 41(8), 935–938.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Voellmy, A. (1955). Über die Zerstörungskraft von Lawinen: Schweizerische Bauzeitung, 73(12,15,17,19), 159–165, 212–217, 246–249, 280–285.Google Scholar
- WREMO (2015). Tsunami evacuation zone maps. Wellington Region Emergency Management Office. http://www.getprepared.org.nz/tsunami-zone-maps. Accessed 28 Apr 2016.