Advertisement

Climate of Bangladesh: Temperature and Rainfall Changes, and Impact on Agriculture and Groundwater—A GIS-Based Analysis

  • Md. Rejaur Rahman
  • Habibah Lateh
  • Md. Nazrul Islam
Chapter
Part of the Springer Climate book series (SPCL)

Abstract

Climate change has become a subject of great interest to the scientific community, since it has major impacts on the physical and human environment on the global, regional, and local scales. The climate of Bangladesh is changing, and its vital agricultural sector and groundwater resources will face the greatest impacts. Rising temperatures, high variability in rainfall, and seasonal shortages of rain will affect the local water balance and will be harmful for agriculture, as will the consequences of climate change such as floods, droughts, cyclones, tidal surges, and soil salinity changes. Therefore, country-level information about climate variability and changes, particularly temperature and rainfall changes, is needed. It is widely recognized that policy makers need reliable and well-synthesized information about climate change and its impacts in order to formulate sustainable management policies for resources and the environment.

This chapter illustrates and analyzes the decadal trends and changing patterns of temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh, using the available historical data and geographic information systems (GIS) and maps for the period of 1971–2010. The decadal mean, mean minimum, and mean maximum temperatures, and the decadal average, premonsoon, and postmonsoon rainfall are assessed and analyzed. The short-term (2011–2020) predictions for temperature and rainfall, using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series analysis model, are also evaluated and analyzed spatially. Moreover, the impacts of temperature and rainfall changes on agriculture and groundwater resources are discussed.

There was an increasing trend in the mean (0.19 °C decade−1), mean minimum (0.17 °C decade−1), and mean maximum (0.21 °C decade−1) temperatures in Bangladesh during 1971–2010, and these temperatures (mean, mean minimum, and mean maximum) predominantly increased over the three decades of 1981–2010. The decade of 2001–2010 was the warmest decade in Bangladesh, and the maximum temperature increased faster than the minimum temperature. The northwest and northeast of the country are more susceptible to a rising minimum temperature, while the southeast and central southern parts are more vulnerable to a rising maximum temperature. It was predicted that warming would continue predominantly in these parts of the country in 2011–2020. The mean temperature of the country would increase by about 0.18 °C, in comparison with 2001–2010, indicating about 0.76 °C warmer temperatures in the decade of 2011–2020 than in 1971–1980.

Though the decadal average rainfall showed an increasing trend at 76 mm decade−1 during 1971–2010, there was a general trend toward decreasing rainfall in the pre- and postmonsoon seasons, in which rainfall declined by 8 and 4 mm decade−1, respectively. The pre- and postmonsoon rainfall in Bangladesh declined sharply during the two decades of 1991–2010. However, the monsoon rainfall increased by 57 mm decade−1. The model-predicted rainfall showed that during 2011–2020, the average and monsoon rainfall would increase by 119 and 21 mm, respectively, in comparison with 1971–1980. Declines in pre- and postmonsoon rainfall of 5 and 9 mm, respectively, were observed during this decade in comparison with 1971–1980. Greater decreases (of 30–252 mm) in premonsoon rainfall were noted in the western, southwestern, southern and, to some extent, northwestern parts of the country, and the decreases (of 100–289 mm) in rainfall would continue in these parts in 2011–2020, indicating areas vulnerable to decreases in premonsoon rainfall. Greater decreases (of 18–75 mm) in postmonsoon rainfall were noted in the southern, southeastern, eastern, and northwestern parts of the country, and it was anticipated that the decline (of 10–111 mm) in the rainfall in these areas would persist in 2011–2020. Moreover, the rainfall projections for 2011–2020 indicated that the monsoon rainfall would also decrease in the southwestern, central, and northwestern parts of the country, and greater decreases (of 200–221 mm) in the monsoon rainfall were projected for Rajshahi, Bogra, Dhaka, Faridpur, and Khulna in comparison with 1971–1980.

Since Bangladesh is basically an agrarian country, the expected temperature and rainfall changes would be harmful for its agriculture, because the drought situation would be prolonged and the use of groundwater for irrigation would increase in the country. In particular, because of the increases in the minimum and maximum temperatures and the decreases in seasonal rainfall, the environmental suitability for wheat, boro rice, and other crops grown in the pre- and postmonsoon seasons would be reduced and overextraction of groundwater during the dry season would create geo-environmental problems such as increasing saltwater intrusion and lowering of the water table, thus the country might face worsening of food security in the near future. Hence, agricultural practices, harvesting of surface water, and optimum use of groundwater need to be incorporated into mitigation policies and programs to combat the effects of future climate change.

References

  1. Afshin S, Fahmi H, Alizadeh A, Sedghi H, Kaveh F (2011) Long term rainfall forecasting by integrated artificial neural network-fuzzy logic-wavelet model in Karoon basin. Sci Res Essays 6(6):1200–1208Google Scholar
  2. Ahmad QK, Warrick RA (1996) The implications of climate and sea level change for Bangladesh. Kluwer Academic Publisher, DordrechtGoogle Scholar
  3. Ahmed AU (2000) Adaptability of Bangladesh’s crop agriculture to climate change: possibilities and limitations. Asia Pac J Environ Dev 7(1):71–93Google Scholar
  4. BADC (Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation) (2012) Annual report 2011–2012. BADC, Dhaka, BangladeshGoogle Scholar
  5. BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics) (2010) Statistical year book of Bangladesh. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Government of the People’s Republic of BangladeshGoogle Scholar
  6. BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics) (2012) Population & housing census 2011: preliminary results. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, DhakaGoogle Scholar
  7. BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics) (2013) Statistical year book of Bangladesh. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Government of the People’s Republic of BangladeshGoogle Scholar
  8. Biswas PR (1995) Food: stock, import and price. Dhaka Courier 11(34):9Google Scholar
  9. Box GEP, Jenkins GM (1976) Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Holden-Day, Boca RatonGoogle Scholar
  10. Boyle SJ, Tsanis IK, Kanaroglou PS (1998) Developing geographic information systems for land use impact assessment in flooding condition. J Water Resour Plan Manag ASCE 124(2):89–98CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Dai FC, Lee CF, Zhang XH (2001) GIS based geo-environmental evaluation of urban land use planning: a case study. Eng Geol 91:257–271CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Dash SK, Shekhar MS, Singh GP (2006) Simulation of Indian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall using RegCM3. Theor Appl Climatol 86(1–4):161–172CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Diomede T, Davolio S, Marsigli C, Miglietta MM, Moscatello A, Papetti P, Paccagnella T, Buzzi A, Malguzzi P (2008) Discharge prediction based on multi model precipitation forecasts. Meteorog Atmos Phys 101(3–4):245–265CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Divya MR (1995) Climate change and hydrology with emphasis on the Indian subcontinent. Hydrol Sci J 40:231–241CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Esfahani AA, Friedel MJ (2014) Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach. Environ Model Softw 52:83–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. GOB (Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh) (2012) Sixth five year plan. Department of Disaster Management, Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, Government of the People’s Republic of BangladeshGoogle Scholar
  17. Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, Lo K, Lea DW, Medina-Elizade M (2006) Global temperature change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103:14288–14293CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R (2013) Global temperature update through 2012. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2014/20140121_Temperature2013.pdf
  19. Hartmann DL, KT AMG, Rusticucci M, Alexander LV, Brönnimann S, Charabi Y, Dentener FJ, Dlugokencky EJ, Easterling DR, Kaplan A, Soden BJ, Thorne PW, Wild M, Zhai PM (2013) Observations: atmosphere and surface. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis, contribution of Working Group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New YorkGoogle Scholar
  20. Hasan Z, Akhter S, Islam M (2014) Climate change and trend of rainfall in the south-east part of the coastal Bangladesh. Eur Sci J 10(2)Google Scholar
  21. Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW et al (2007) Understanding and attributing climate change. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 663–745Google Scholar
  22. Hulme M, Osborn TJ, Johns TC (1998) Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: comparison of observations with HADCM2 simulations. Geophys Res Lett 25:3379–3382CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. ILWIS (Integrated Land and Water Information System), version 3.3 (2005) Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation of the University of Twente (ITC), EnschedeGoogle Scholar
  24. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007) Technical summary of climate change 2007: the physical science basis, contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2014) Climate change 2014 impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Fifth assessment report. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  26. Jones PD (1995) Maximum and minimum temperature trends in Ireland, Italy, Thailand, Turkey and Bangladesh. Atmos Res 37(1–3):67–78CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Karim Z, Hussain SG, Ahmed AU (1998) Climate change vulnerability of crop agriculture. In: Huq S, Karim Z, Asaduzzaman M, Mahtab F (eds) Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change for Bangladesh. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 39–54Google Scholar
  28. Karmakar S, Shrestha ML (2000) Recent climate change in Bangladesh, SMRC No.4, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), DhakaGoogle Scholar
  29. Karmalkar AV, Bradley RS, Diaz HF (2011) Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections. Clim Dyn 37:605–629.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1099-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Kim BS, Hossein SZ, Choi G (2011) Evaluation of temporal-spatial precipitation variability and prediction using seasonal ARIMA model in Mongolia. KSCE J Civ Eng 15(5):917–925CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Krivtsov V (2004) Investigations of indirect relationships in ecology and environmental sciences: a review and the implications for comparative theoretical ecosystem analysis. Ecol Model 174:37–54CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Landscheidt T (2000) Solar wind near earth: indicator of variations in global temperature. In: Proceedings of the 1st solar and space weather European conference on the solar cycle and terrestrial climate, pp 497–500Google Scholar
  33. Lee JH, Sohn KT (2007) Prediction of monthly mean surface air temperature in a region of China. Adv Atmos Sci 24:503–508.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-007-0503-1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Li J, Huang JF, Wang XZ (2006) A GIS based approach for estimating spatial distribution of seasonal temperature in Zhejiang Province, China. J Zhejiang Univ Sci A 7(4):647–656CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Lin GF, Chen GR, Wu MC, Chou YC (2009) Effective forecasting of hourly typhoon rainfall using support vector machines. Water Resour Res 45:W08440CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Marengo JA, Jones R, Alvesa LM, Valverde MC (2009) Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. Int J Climatol 29(15).  https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1863
  37. Mia NM (2003) Variations of temperature of Bangladesh. In: Proceedings, SAARC seminars on climate variability in the south asian region and its impacts. SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), DhakaGoogle Scholar
  38. Moore D, McCabe G (2003) Introduction to the practice of statistics. WH Freeman and Co., LondonGoogle Scholar
  39. NAPA (National Adaptation Programme of Action) (2005) National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA): final report November 2005. Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of the People’s Republic of BangladeshGoogle Scholar
  40. Paudyal GN (1996) An integrated GIS-numerical modelling system for advanced flood management. In: Proceedings of the international conference on water resources & environment research: towards the 21st century. Water Resources Research Centre, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, pp 555–562Google Scholar
  41. Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy JE, Laza RE, Visperas RM, Zhong X, Centeno GS, Khush GS, Cassman KG (2004) Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101:9971–9975CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Rahman MR (2012) Cropping pattern planning for a flood prone area—a study using remote sensing and GIS to reduce the losses of climate change impact. In: Proceedings, Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) climate symposium, October 2012. St. Petersburg, RussiaGoogle Scholar
  43. Rahman MR, Lateh H (2016) Meteorological drought in Bangladesh: assessing, analysing and hazard mapping using SPI, GIS and monthly rainfall data. Environ Earth Sci 75:1026.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-5829-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Rahman MR, Saha SK (2007) Flood hazard zonation—a GIS aided multicriteria evaluation approach (MCE) with remotely sensed data. Int J Geoinf 3(3):25–37Google Scholar
  45. Rahman MR, Saha SK (2008) Remote sensing, spatial multi criteria evaluation (SMCE) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) in optimal cropping pattern planning for a flood prone area. J Spat Sci 53(2):161–177CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Rahman MR, Saha SK (2009) Spatial dynamics of cropland and cropping pattern change analysis using Landsat TM and IRS P6 LISS III satellite images with GIS. Geo-Spat Inf Sci 12(2)Google Scholar
  47. Rahman MR, Shi ZH, Cai C (2009) Soil erosion hazard evaluation—an integrated use of remote sensing, GIS and statistical approaches with biophysical parameters towards management strategies. Ecol Model 220(13–14):1724–1734CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Rahman MR, Shi ZH, Cai C (2014) Assessing regional environmental quality by integrated use of remote sensing, GIS, and spatial multi-criteria evaluation for prioritization of environmental restoration. Environ Monit Assess 186(8).  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-014-3905-4
  49. Rahmstorf SA, Cazenave JA, Church JE, Hansen RF, Keeling DE, Parker RC, Somerville J (2007) Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science 316.  https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1136843
  50. Rashid HE (1991) Geography of Bangladesh. University Press Ltd, DhakaGoogle Scholar
  51. Rodríguez-Puebla C, Encinas AH, Nieto S, Garmendia J (1998) Spatial and temporal patterns of annual precipitation variability over the Iberian Peninsula. Int J Climatol 18:299–316CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Romilly P (2005) Time series modelling of global mean temperature for managerial decision-making. J Environ Manag 76:61–70CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Shahid S (2010) Recent trends in the climate of Bangladesh. Clim Res 42(3):185–193CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Shahid S (2011) Impact of climate change on irrigation water demand of dry season boro rice in northwest Bangladesh. Clim Chang 105:433–453.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9895-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Soon W, Baliunas S, Posmentier ES, Okeke P (2000) Variations of solar coronal hole area and terrestrial lower tropospheric air temperature from 1979 to mid-1998: astronomical forcing of change in earth’s climate? New Astron 4(8):563–579CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. SPSS software, version 16 (2007) IBM Corporation, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  57. Trenberth KE, Jones PD, Ambenje P, Bojariu R, Easterling D, Klein TA, Parker D, Rahimzadeh F, Renwick JA, Rusticucci M, Soden B, Zhai P (2007) Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New YorkGoogle Scholar
  58. UN (United Nations) (2012) World population prospects: the 2012 revision, population division of the Department of the Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat http://esa.un.org/unpd/ wpp/index.htm
  59. UNCSD (United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development) (2012). Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 20–22 June 2012Google Scholar
  60. UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) (2009) The Copenhagen accord of 18 December 2009, 2/CP.15, Bonn, GermanyGoogle Scholar
  61. WMO (2014) Press release No. 983. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandGoogle Scholar
  62. Yu B, Neil DT (1993) Long-term variations in regional rainfall in the south-west of Western Australia and the difference between average and high intensity rainfalls. Int J Climatol 13:77–88CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Yurekli K, Simsek H, Cemek B, Karaman S (2007) Simulating climatic variables by using stochastic approach. Build Environ 42:3493–3499CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Md. Rejaur Rahman
    • 1
    • 2
  • Habibah Lateh
    • 1
  • Md. Nazrul Islam
    • 3
  1. 1.School of Distance EducationUniversiti Sains Malaysia (USM)Pulau PenangMalaysia
  2. 2.Department of Geography and Environmental StudiesUniversity of RajshahiRajshahiBangladesh
  3. 3.Department of Geography and EnvironmentJahangirnagar UniversitySavar, DhakaBangladesh

Personalised recommendations