Climate of Bangladesh: Temperature and Rainfall Changes, and Impact on Agriculture and Groundwater—A GIS-Based Analysis
Climate change has become a subject of great interest to the scientific community, since it has major impacts on the physical and human environment on the global, regional, and local scales. The climate of Bangladesh is changing, and its vital agricultural sector and groundwater resources will face the greatest impacts. Rising temperatures, high variability in rainfall, and seasonal shortages of rain will affect the local water balance and will be harmful for agriculture, as will the consequences of climate change such as floods, droughts, cyclones, tidal surges, and soil salinity changes. Therefore, country-level information about climate variability and changes, particularly temperature and rainfall changes, is needed. It is widely recognized that policy makers need reliable and well-synthesized information about climate change and its impacts in order to formulate sustainable management policies for resources and the environment.
This chapter illustrates and analyzes the decadal trends and changing patterns of temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh, using the available historical data and geographic information systems (GIS) and maps for the period of 1971–2010. The decadal mean, mean minimum, and mean maximum temperatures, and the decadal average, premonsoon, and postmonsoon rainfall are assessed and analyzed. The short-term (2011–2020) predictions for temperature and rainfall, using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series analysis model, are also evaluated and analyzed spatially. Moreover, the impacts of temperature and rainfall changes on agriculture and groundwater resources are discussed.
There was an increasing trend in the mean (0.19 °C decade−1), mean minimum (0.17 °C decade−1), and mean maximum (0.21 °C decade−1) temperatures in Bangladesh during 1971–2010, and these temperatures (mean, mean minimum, and mean maximum) predominantly increased over the three decades of 1981–2010. The decade of 2001–2010 was the warmest decade in Bangladesh, and the maximum temperature increased faster than the minimum temperature. The northwest and northeast of the country are more susceptible to a rising minimum temperature, while the southeast and central southern parts are more vulnerable to a rising maximum temperature. It was predicted that warming would continue predominantly in these parts of the country in 2011–2020. The mean temperature of the country would increase by about 0.18 °C, in comparison with 2001–2010, indicating about 0.76 °C warmer temperatures in the decade of 2011–2020 than in 1971–1980.
Though the decadal average rainfall showed an increasing trend at 76 mm decade−1 during 1971–2010, there was a general trend toward decreasing rainfall in the pre- and postmonsoon seasons, in which rainfall declined by 8 and 4 mm decade−1, respectively. The pre- and postmonsoon rainfall in Bangladesh declined sharply during the two decades of 1991–2010. However, the monsoon rainfall increased by 57 mm decade−1. The model-predicted rainfall showed that during 2011–2020, the average and monsoon rainfall would increase by 119 and 21 mm, respectively, in comparison with 1971–1980. Declines in pre- and postmonsoon rainfall of 5 and 9 mm, respectively, were observed during this decade in comparison with 1971–1980. Greater decreases (of 30–252 mm) in premonsoon rainfall were noted in the western, southwestern, southern and, to some extent, northwestern parts of the country, and the decreases (of 100–289 mm) in rainfall would continue in these parts in 2011–2020, indicating areas vulnerable to decreases in premonsoon rainfall. Greater decreases (of 18–75 mm) in postmonsoon rainfall were noted in the southern, southeastern, eastern, and northwestern parts of the country, and it was anticipated that the decline (of 10–111 mm) in the rainfall in these areas would persist in 2011–2020. Moreover, the rainfall projections for 2011–2020 indicated that the monsoon rainfall would also decrease in the southwestern, central, and northwestern parts of the country, and greater decreases (of 200–221 mm) in the monsoon rainfall were projected for Rajshahi, Bogra, Dhaka, Faridpur, and Khulna in comparison with 1971–1980.
Since Bangladesh is basically an agrarian country, the expected temperature and rainfall changes would be harmful for its agriculture, because the drought situation would be prolonged and the use of groundwater for irrigation would increase in the country. In particular, because of the increases in the minimum and maximum temperatures and the decreases in seasonal rainfall, the environmental suitability for wheat, boro rice, and other crops grown in the pre- and postmonsoon seasons would be reduced and overextraction of groundwater during the dry season would create geo-environmental problems such as increasing saltwater intrusion and lowering of the water table, thus the country might face worsening of food security in the near future. Hence, agricultural practices, harvesting of surface water, and optimum use of groundwater need to be incorporated into mitigation policies and programs to combat the effects of future climate change.
- Afshin S, Fahmi H, Alizadeh A, Sedghi H, Kaveh F (2011) Long term rainfall forecasting by integrated artificial neural network-fuzzy logic-wavelet model in Karoon basin. Sci Res Essays 6(6):1200–1208Google Scholar
- Ahmad QK, Warrick RA (1996) The implications of climate and sea level change for Bangladesh. Kluwer Academic Publisher, DordrechtGoogle Scholar
- Ahmed AU (2000) Adaptability of Bangladesh’s crop agriculture to climate change: possibilities and limitations. Asia Pac J Environ Dev 7(1):71–93Google Scholar
- BADC (Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation) (2012) Annual report 2011–2012. BADC, Dhaka, BangladeshGoogle Scholar
- BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics) (2010) Statistical year book of Bangladesh. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Government of the People’s Republic of BangladeshGoogle Scholar
- BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics) (2012) Population & housing census 2011: preliminary results. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, DhakaGoogle Scholar
- BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics) (2013) Statistical year book of Bangladesh. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Government of the People’s Republic of BangladeshGoogle Scholar
- Biswas PR (1995) Food: stock, import and price. Dhaka Courier 11(34):9Google Scholar
- Box GEP, Jenkins GM (1976) Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Holden-Day, Boca RatonGoogle Scholar
- GOB (Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh) (2012) Sixth five year plan. Department of Disaster Management, Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, Government of the People’s Republic of BangladeshGoogle Scholar
- Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R (2013) Global temperature update through 2012. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2014/20140121_Temperature2013.pdf
- Hartmann DL, KT AMG, Rusticucci M, Alexander LV, Brönnimann S, Charabi Y, Dentener FJ, Dlugokencky EJ, Easterling DR, Kaplan A, Soden BJ, Thorne PW, Wild M, Zhai PM (2013) Observations: atmosphere and surface. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis, contribution of Working Group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New YorkGoogle Scholar
- Hasan Z, Akhter S, Islam M (2014) Climate change and trend of rainfall in the south-east part of the coastal Bangladesh. Eur Sci J 10(2)Google Scholar
- Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW et al (2007) Understanding and attributing climate change. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 663–745Google Scholar
- ILWIS (Integrated Land and Water Information System), version 3.3 (2005) Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation of the University of Twente (ITC), EnschedeGoogle Scholar
- IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2014) Climate change 2014 impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Fifth assessment report. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Karim Z, Hussain SG, Ahmed AU (1998) Climate change vulnerability of crop agriculture. In: Huq S, Karim Z, Asaduzzaman M, Mahtab F (eds) Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change for Bangladesh. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 39–54Google Scholar
- Karmakar S, Shrestha ML (2000) Recent climate change in Bangladesh, SMRC No.4, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), DhakaGoogle Scholar
- Landscheidt T (2000) Solar wind near earth: indicator of variations in global temperature. In: Proceedings of the 1st solar and space weather European conference on the solar cycle and terrestrial climate, pp 497–500Google Scholar
- Marengo JA, Jones R, Alvesa LM, Valverde MC (2009) Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. Int J Climatol 29(15). https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1863
- Mia NM (2003) Variations of temperature of Bangladesh. In: Proceedings, SAARC seminars on climate variability in the south asian region and its impacts. SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), DhakaGoogle Scholar
- Moore D, McCabe G (2003) Introduction to the practice of statistics. WH Freeman and Co., LondonGoogle Scholar
- NAPA (National Adaptation Programme of Action) (2005) National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA): final report November 2005. Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of the People’s Republic of BangladeshGoogle Scholar
- Paudyal GN (1996) An integrated GIS-numerical modelling system for advanced flood management. In: Proceedings of the international conference on water resources & environment research: towards the 21st century. Water Resources Research Centre, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, pp 555–562Google Scholar
- Rahman MR (2012) Cropping pattern planning for a flood prone area—a study using remote sensing and GIS to reduce the losses of climate change impact. In: Proceedings, Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) climate symposium, October 2012. St. Petersburg, RussiaGoogle Scholar
- Rahman MR, Saha SK (2007) Flood hazard zonation—a GIS aided multicriteria evaluation approach (MCE) with remotely sensed data. Int J Geoinf 3(3):25–37Google Scholar
- Rahman MR, Saha SK (2009) Spatial dynamics of cropland and cropping pattern change analysis using Landsat TM and IRS P6 LISS III satellite images with GIS. Geo-Spat Inf Sci 12(2)Google Scholar
- Rahman MR, Shi ZH, Cai C (2014) Assessing regional environmental quality by integrated use of remote sensing, GIS, and spatial multi-criteria evaluation for prioritization of environmental restoration. Environ Monit Assess 186(8). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-014-3905-4
- Rahmstorf SA, Cazenave JA, Church JE, Hansen RF, Keeling DE, Parker RC, Somerville J (2007) Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science 316. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1136843
- Rashid HE (1991) Geography of Bangladesh. University Press Ltd, DhakaGoogle Scholar
- SPSS software, version 16 (2007) IBM Corporation, New YorkGoogle Scholar
- Trenberth KE, Jones PD, Ambenje P, Bojariu R, Easterling D, Klein TA, Parker D, Rahimzadeh F, Renwick JA, Rusticucci M, Soden B, Zhai P (2007) Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New YorkGoogle Scholar
- UNCSD (United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development) (2012). Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 20–22 June 2012Google Scholar
- UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) (2009) The Copenhagen accord of 18 December 2009, 2/CP.15, Bonn, GermanyGoogle Scholar
- WMO (2014) Press release No. 983. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandGoogle Scholar