Evaluation of Stream Flow Prediction Capability of Hydrological Models in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
- 41 Downloads
This study aims to evaluate stream flow predication capability of three hydrological models including Parameter Efficient Semi-Distributed Watershed Model (PED-WM) model, Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) and Hydraulic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) in range of sizes of watersheds, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. The model efficiency on daily time scale during calibration period for PED-W (NSE = 0.76, 0.81 and 0.57), HBV-IHMS (NSE = 0.68, 0.79 and 0.59) and HEC-HMS (NSE = 0.63, 0.68 and 0.48) were obtained for Anjeni, Gumara and Main Belles watersheds respectively. Similarly, for validation period PED-W (NSE = 0.6, 0.73 and 0.37), HBV-IHMS (NSE = 0.56, 0.79 and 0.55) and HECHMS (NSE = 0.52, 0.74 and 0.37) were obtained for Anjeni, Gumara and Main Belles watersheds respectively. Similarly, the model performances on monthly time steps were also varied among three hydrological models and the results better than the daily time scale. In PED-W, saturation excess is the main direct runoff process. The overall model performance indicated that PED-W model was better than the other two models. The result indicates that the models in the highlands of Ethiopia are dominantly dependent on the runoff mechanism dominantly on saturation excess runoff mechanism. Hence, there should be an approach to integrate climate region specific model in our water resource development system for predicting stream flow for ungagged catchments.
KeywordsHBV HEC-HMS Hydrological model PED-W Upper Blue Nile basin
The financial source of this study primally has been supported by Ethiopia government such as Minister of education, Ethiopia Road Authority. The first authors would like to thanks Bahir Dar University for their supporting every aspect for needed study. We would like to also thanks to National Meteorological Agency (NMA) Bahir Dar branch for their help by providing necessary data for this study.
- 1.Awulachew, S.B., McCartney, M., Steenhuis, T.S., Ahmed, A.A.: A review of hydrology, sediment and water resource use in the Blue Nile Basin; IWMI (2009). ISBN 978-92-9090-699-5Google Scholar
- 4.Steenhuis, T.S., et al.: Predicting discharge and sediment for the Abay (Blue Nile) with a simple model. Hydrol. Process. Int. J. 23, 3728–3737 (2009)Google Scholar
- 5.Collick, A.S., et al.: A simple semi-distributed water balance model for the Ethiopian Highlands. Hydrol. Process. Int. J. 23, 3718–3727 (2009)Google Scholar
- 8.Enku, T., Melesse, A.M.: A simple temperature method for the estimation of evapotranspiration. Hydrol. Process. 28, 2945–2960 (2014)Google Scholar
- 10.Thornthwaite, C.M., Mather, J.R.: The Water Balance. Publica Tions Climatol, Centerton (1955)Google Scholar
- 11.Hammouri, N., El-Naqa, A.: Hydrological modeling of ungauged wadis in arid environments using GIS: a case study of Wadi Madoneh in Jordan. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Geológicas 24, 185–196 (2007)Google Scholar
- 14.Wale, A., Rientjes, T.H.M., Gieske, A.S.M., Getachew, H.A.: Ungauged catchment contributions to Lake Tana’s water balance. Hydrol. Process. Int. J. 23, 3682–3693 (2009)Google Scholar
- 16.U.A.C. Engineers of Hydrologic modeling system HEC-HMS technical reference manual. Hydrol. Eng. Cent. (2000)Google Scholar
- 18.Tilahun, S.A., et al.: Spatial and temporal patterns of soil erosion in the semi-humid Ethiopian Highlands: a case study of Debre Mawi watershed. In: Melesse, A.M., Abtew, W., Setegn, S.G. (eds.) Nile River Basin, pp. 149–163. Springer, Cham (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02720-3_9CrossRefGoogle Scholar