Monitoring and Predicting the State of the Road Network in Russia’s Cryolitic Zone
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The systematic increase in the surface air temperature observed in the permafrost areas creates significant risks of reducing the functionality of the road network and other objects of road transport infrastructure. To determine the projected state of the roads and identify the most rational types, volumes and timing of measures to preserve their functionality, it is proposed to use mathematical modeling carried out on the basis of constantly updated data on current climatic changes. A means of data collection in large areas of the road network in the cryolitic zone is an information system, the main functional elements of which are a geographically distributed module of instrumental observation and a prognostic module. The modeling sequence in determining the climatic risks caused by the increase in the temperature of soils in the foundations of road transport infrastructure objects is shown. The efficiency of the prognostic module algorithms is confirmed by numerical calculations of climate risks under climate change scenario providing for a warming of 2 °C. It is shown that in the case of sandy soils, risks can be characterized as low and not requiring the implementation of expensive measures to reduce them. The presence of clay soils at the base of roads leads to risks of an average level, when, according to the results of additional economic analysis, such measures may be appropriate.
KeywordsRoad network Cryolitic zone Climate change Climate risks
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