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A Network Structure Analysis of Economic Crises

  • Maximilian GöbelEmail author
  • Tanya Araújo
Conference paper
Part of the Studies in Computational Intelligence book series (SCI, volume 882)

Abstract

Do countries with similar macroeconomic dynamics during pre-crisis times experience a common subsequent crisis-, respectively non-crisis-, status? Based on the Euclidean distance, a community structure detection algorithm generates the network topology of four distinct pre-crisis periods between 1990 and 2008 comprising 27 countries. The desired outcome is a clear-cut separation of future crisis from non-crisis economies. The approach succeeds in uncovering prominent cluster formations, whereas period-specific heatmaps reveal the time-varying importance of the considered indicators. The heterogeneous cluster-formation does not allow to infer any dynamics, which would unambiguously hint at an upcoming crisis event.

Keywords

Clustering Crisis prediction Macroeconomic dynamics 

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.ISEGUniversity of Lisbon and UECELisbonPortugal

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