Advertisement

Terrorist Recidivism in Israel: Rates, Patterns and Risk Factors

  • Tomer Carmel
  • Michael WolfowiczEmail author
  • Badi Hasisi
  • David Weisburd
Chapter
  • 38 Downloads

Abstract

The potential of terrorists to re-offend after their release from prison is of much concern in many countries around the world. Yet, there is little research on terrorist recidivism, and risk factors that might contribute to it, as data concerning released offenders of terrorism is scarce. In this chapter, we investigate terrorist recidivism using a large dataset of offenders identified as “security offenders”, which are related to terrorism in Israel, in the years 2004–2017. While the overall rate of recidivism of this cohort is lower than the Israeli criminal recidivism rate, some risk factors affect security offenders similarly to other criminals. While some risk factors known to affect criminal recidivism, such as affiliation to criminal organizations and age, show similar patterns for terrorist recidivism, factors such as length of incarceration and type of crime, show different trends. We discuss the role of these factors within the Israeli and global context.

References

  1. Altier M. B., Horgan, J., Thoroughgood, C. (2012). Returning to the fight: what the literature on criminal recidivism can contribute to our understanding of terrorist recidivism. Department of Homeland Security reportGoogle Scholar
  2. Altier, M. B., Thoroughgood, C. N., & Horgan, J. G. (2014). Turning away from terrorism: Lessons from psychology, sociology, and criminology. Journal of Peace Research, 51(5), 647–661.Google Scholar
  3. Altier, M. B., Leonard Boyle, E., & Horgan, J. G. (2019). Returning to the fight: an empirical analysis of terrorist reengagement and recidivism. Terrorism and Political Violence, 1–25.Google Scholar
  4. Bovenkerk, F. (2011). On leaving criminal organizations. Crime, Law and Social Change, 55(4), 261–276.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Blokland, A. A. J., & Nieuwbeerta, P. (2004). Recidive en het beëindigen van de criminele carrière over een periode van 25 jaar. Tijdschrift voor Criminologie, 46(1), 18–36.Google Scholar
  6. Ben-Zvi, K., & Walk, D. (2011). Recidivism shel asirim plilim m’shuchrarey 2004 b’Yisrael [Recidivism of criminal prisoners released in 2004 in Israel]. Tzohar l’Beit ha’Sohar [Window into the Prison], 14, 10–28.Google Scholar
  7. Berrebi, C. (2007) Evidence about the Link Between Education, Poverty and Terrorism among Palestinians. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 13(1).Google Scholar
  8. Bakker, E. (2006). Jihadi terrorists in Europe. The Hague: Cliengendael.Google Scholar
  9. Bjørgo, T. (2008). Processes of disengagement from violent groups of the extreme right. In Leaving terrorism behind (pp. 48–66). Routledge.Google Scholar
  10. Bélanger, J. J. (2017). The rise and fall of violent extremism: The science behind community-based interventions. In The Motivation-Cognition Interface (pp. 170–195). Routledge.Google Scholar
  11. Clifford, B. (2018). Radicalization in Custody. Towards Data-Driven Terrorism Prevention in the United States Federal Correctional System, Program on Extremism Policy Paper, The George Washington University.Google Scholar
  12. Cragin, R. K. (2017). The challenge of foreign fighter returnees. Journal of contemporary criminal justice, 33(3), 292–312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Chermak, S., & Gruenewald, J. A. (2015). Laying a foundation for the criminological examination of right-wing, left-wing, and Al Qaeda-inspired extremism in the United States. Terrorism and Political Violence, 27(1), 133–159.Google Scholar
  14. Chesney, R. M. (2007). Federal prosecution of terrorism-related offenses: conviction and sentencing data in light of the soft-sentence and data-reliability critiques. Lewis & Clark L. Rev., 11, 851.Google Scholar
  15. Dernevik, M., Beck, A., Grann, M., Hogue, T., & McGuire, J. (2009). The use of psychiatric and psychological evidence in the assessment of terrorist offenders. The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology, 20(4), 508–515.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Dooley, B. D., Seals, A., & Skarbek, D. (2014). The effect of prison gang membership on recidivism. Journal of Criminal Justice, 42(3), 267–275.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. De Kerchove, G., & Höhn, C. (2016). “The Regional Answers and Governance Structure for Dealing with the Foreign Fighters: The Case of the EU”, In De Guttry, A.; Capone, F.; Paulussen, C. (Eds.), Foreign Fighters under International Law and Beyond, T.M.C. Asser Press/Springer Verlag: The Hague, 299–332.Google Scholar
  18. Fahey, S. (2013). Predictors of Release from Guantánamo Bay and Detainee Recidivism. International Journal of Criminology and Sociology, 2, 453–468.Google Scholar
  19. Ganor, B., & Falk, O. (2013). De-radicalization in Israel’s prison system. Studies in conflict & terrorism, 36(2), 116–131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Gill, P., Horgan, J., & Deckert, P. (2014). Bombing alone: Tracing the motivations and antecedent behaviors of lone‐actor terrorists. Journal of Forensic Sciences, 59(2), 425–435.Google Scholar
  21. Gill, P., Horgan, J., Corner, E., & Silver, J. (2016). Indicators of lone actor violent events: The problems of low base rates and long observational periods. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management, 3(3–4), 165.Google Scholar
  22. Harms, J. (2017). The war on terror and accomplices: An exploratory study of individuals who provide material support to terrorists. Security Journal, 30(2), 417–436.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Hodwitz, O. (2019). The Terrorism Recidivism Study (TRS). Perspectives on Terrorism, 13(2), 54–64.Google Scholar
  24. Hasisi, B., Carmel, T., Weisburd, D., & Wolfowicz, M. (2019). Crime and terror: examining criminal risk factors for terrorist recidivism. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 1–24.Google Scholar
  25. Horgan, J., & Braddock, K. (2010). Rehabilitating the terrorists?: Challenges in assessing the effectiveness of de-radicalization programs. Terrorism and Political Violence, 22(2), 267–291.Google Scholar
  26. Høigilt, J. (2016). Fatah from below: The clash of generations in palestine. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 43(4), 456–471.Google Scholar
  27. Hegghammer, T. (2013). Should I Stay or Should I Go? Explaining Variation in Western Jihadists' Choice between Domestic and Foreign Fighting. American Political Science Review 107(1), 1–15Google Scholar
  28. Klausen, J., Morrill, T., & Libretti, R. (2016). The terrorist age‐crime curve: An analysis of American Islamist terrorist offenders and age‐specific propensity for participation in violent and nonviolent incidents. Social Science Quarterly, 97(1), 19–32.Google Scholar
  29. Kebbell, M. R., & Porter, L. (2012). An intelligence assessment framework for identifying individuals at risk of committing acts of violent extremism against the West. Security Journal, 25(3), 212–228.Google Scholar
  30. Kaplan, E. L., & Meier, P. (1958). Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. Journal of the American statistical association, 53(282), 457–481.Google Scholar
  31. Klausen, J., Libretti, R., Hung, B. W., & Jayasumana, A. P. (2018). Radicalization trajectories: An evidence-based Computational approach to dynamic risk assessment of “Homegrown” Jihadists. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 1–28.Google Scholar
  32. Liem, M. (2013). Homicide offender recidivism: A review of the literature. Aggression and Violent Behavior 18(1), 19–25.Google Scholar
  33. Miethe, T. D., Olson, J., & Mitchell, O. (2006). Specialization and persistence in the arrest histories of sex offenders: A comparative analysis of alternative measures and offense types. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 43(3), 204–229.Google Scholar
  34. Mears, D. P., Cochran, J. C., & Cullen, F. T. (2015). Incarceration heterogeneity and its implications for assessing the effectiveness of imprisonment on recidivism. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 26(7), 691–712.Google Scholar
  35. Mitchell, O., Cochran, J. C., Mears, D. P., & Bales, W. D. (2017). Examining prison effects on recidivism: A regression discontinuity approach. Justice Quarterly, 34(4), 571–596.Google Scholar
  36. Mullins, S. (2010). Rehabilitation of Islamist terrorists: Lessons from criminology. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict 3(3), 162–193.Google Scholar
  37. Masters, D. (2004). Support and Nonsupport for Nationalist Rebellion: A Prospect Theory Approach. Political Psychology 25(5), 703–726.Google Scholar
  38. Meade, B., Steiner, B., Makarios, M., & Travis, L. (2013). Estimating a dose–response relationship between time served in prison and recidivism. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 50(4), 525–550.Google Scholar
  39. Norris, J. J. (2019). Explaining the Emergence of Entrapment in Post-9/11 Terrorism Investigations. Critical Criminology 27(3), 467–483.Google Scholar
  40. Owens, E. G. (2009). More Time, Less Crime? Estimating the Incapacitative Effect of Sentence Enhancements. The Journal of Law and Economics 52(3), 551–579.Google Scholar
  41. Pluchinsky, D. A. (2008). Global jihadist recidivism: A red flag. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 31(3), 182–200.Google Scholar
  42. Prentky, R. A., Lee, A. F., Knight, R. A., & Cerce, D. (1997). Recidivism rates among child molesters and rapists: A methodological analysis. Law and Human Behavior, 21(6), 635–659.Google Scholar
  43. Pyrooz, D. C., LaFree, G., Decker, S. H., & James, P. A. (2018). Cut from the same cloth? A comparative study of domestic extremists and Gang Members in the United States. Justice Quarterly, 35(1), 1–32.Google Scholar
  44. Pettinger, T. (2017). De-radicalization and Counter-radicalization: Valuable Tools Combating Violent Extremism, or Harmful Methods of Subjugation?. Journal for Deradicalization, (12), 1–59.Google Scholar
  45. Perliger, A., Koehler-Derrick, G., & Pedahzur, A. (2016). The gap between participation and violence: Why we need to disaggregate terrorist ‘profiles’. International Studies Quarterly, 60(2), 220–229.Google Scholar
  46. Porges, M. L.(2010). Deradicalisation, the Yemeni Way. Survival 52(2), 27–33.Google Scholar
  47. Piquero, A. R., Jennings, W. G., & Barnes, J. C. (2012). Violence in criminal careers: A review of the literature from a developmental life-course perspective. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 17(3), 171–179.Google Scholar
  48. Rydberg, J., & Clark, K. (2016). Variation in the incarceration length-recidivism dose–response relationship. Journal of Criminal Justice, 46, 118–128.Google Scholar
  49. Silke, A., & Veldhuis, T. (2017). Countering violent extremism in prisons: A review of key recent research and critical research gaps. Perspectives on Terrorism, 11(5), 2–11.Google Scholar
  50. Speckhard, A., Shajkovci, A., & Yayla, A. (2017). Following a military defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq: what happens next after the military victory and the return of foreign fighters?. Contemporary Voices: St Andrews. Journal of International Relations, 8(1), 81–89.Google Scholar
  51. Sageman, M. (2004). Understanding terror networks. University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia.Google Scholar
  52. Spivak, A. L., & Damphousse, K. R. (2006). Who returns to prison? A survival analysis of recidivism among adult offenders released in Oklahoma, 1985–2004. Justice Research and Policy, 8(2), 57–88.Google Scholar
  53. Silke, A. (2008). Research on terrorism. In Chen H., Reid E., Sinai J., Silke A., Ganor B. (eds) Terrorism Informatics. Integrated Series In Information Systems, vol 18. Springer, Boston, MA (pp. 27–50).Google Scholar
  54. Silke, A. (2014). Risk assessment of terrorist and extremist prisoners. In A. Silke (Eds.) Prisons, terrorism and extremism: Critical issues in management, radicalisation and reform, 108–121. Routledge. New York.Google Scholar
  55. Stys, Y., & Ruddell, R. (2013). Organized crime offenders in Canada: Risk, reform, and recidivism. Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, 52(2), 75–97.Google Scholar
  56. Samuel, E. B. (1998). Israel's Demoralization. Middle East Quarterly 5(3), 3–12.Google Scholar
  57. van der Heide, L., & Schuurman, B. (2018). Reintegrating Terrorists in the Netherlands: Evaluating the Dutch approach. Journal for Deradicalization, 17, 196–239.Google Scholar
  58. Waldo, G., & Griswold, D. (1979). Issues in the measurement of recidivism. Sechrest, L., White, S.O. and Brown, E.D. (Eds.), The rehabilitation of criminal offenders: Problems and prospects, 225–250. Washington, DC: The National Academies PressGoogle Scholar
  59. Wiesner, M., Yoerger, K., & Capaldi, D. M. (2018). Patterns and correlates of offender versatility and specialization across a 23-year span for at-risk young men. Victims & Offenders, 13(1), 28–47.Google Scholar
  60. Walk, D., Berman, E. (2015). The Recidivism of Israeli Prisoners. Israel Prison Service, RamlaGoogle Scholar
  61. Weilnböck, H. (2012). Hate Crime and Radicalisation: the German Political Experience and the Schellenberg Report. Belfast: NIACRO.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Tomer Carmel
    • 1
  • Michael Wolfowicz
    • 1
    Email author
  • Badi Hasisi
    • 1
  • David Weisburd
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Institute of Criminology, Faculty of Law, Hebrew University of JerusalemJerusalemIsrael
  2. 2.Department of Criminology, Law and SocietyGeorge Mason UniversityFairfaxUSA

Personalised recommendations