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A Longitudinal Study on Twitter-Based Forecasting of Five Dutch National Elections

  • Eric SandersEmail author
  • Antal van den Bosch
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 11864)

Abstract

We report on an eight-year longitudinal study of predicting the outcome of elections based on party mentions in tweets. Five Dutch national elections for the parliament and senate between 2011 and 2019 were examined. Configurations with four parameters were tested. For three elections, reasonably accurate predictions can be obtained that are under twice the error of the classic polls, but only after post-hoc optimization. When the same optimal parameter configuration is used for all elections, the results worsen.

Keywords

Twitter Election forecasting Longitudinal study 

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.CLS/CLSTRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands
  2. 2.KNAW Meertens InstituteAmsterdamThe Netherlands

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