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Predictive Model for Brazilian Presidential Election Based on Analysis of Social Media

  • Guilherme Silva
  • Mirele Costa
  • André Drummond
  • Li WeigangEmail author
Conference paper
Part of the Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing book series (AISC, volume 1075)

Abstract

The prediction of presidential election outcome is key point of interest for politicians, electors and sponsoring companies. The 2018 Brazilian election presented a scenario with many uncertainties increasing prediction challenge. The utilization of social media as the promotion tools is another new scenario for both election and also prediction. In this paper, we present a Bayesian forecasting model based on the data from public opinion polls to predict the votes of undecided voters, about a third of the population. The migration of votes among candidates during the electoral period was also analyzed. By using the data from social media in the decision-making process, the proposed model and application show the capability to estimate the voting numbers of the main candidates with better accuracy than public opinion polls.

Keywords

Forecasting Brazilian election Naive Bayes Social media 

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Guilherme Silva
    • 1
    • 2
  • Mirele Costa
    • 1
  • André Drummond
    • 1
  • Li Weigang
    • 1
    Email author
  1. 1.Department of Computer ScienceUniversity of BrasiliaBrasiliaBrazil
  2. 2.Department of Electrical EngineeringState University of PiauíTeresinaBrazil

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