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Ice Cores and Emulation: Learning More About Past Ice Sheet Shapes

  • Fiona TurnerEmail author
  • Richard Wilkinson
  • Caitlin Buck
  • Julie Jones
  • Louise Sime
Conference paper
Part of the Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics book series (PROMS, volume 296)

Abstract

Creating more accurate reconstructions of past Antarctic ice sheet shapes allows us to better predict how they will vary in the changing climate and contribute to future sea level changes. In this research, we use expert elicitation to create a subjective prior distribution of the Antarctic ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21Ka. A design of shapes from this distribution will be run through the global climate model HadCM3, providing us with output that we can compare with proxy data to find a better estimate of the ice sheet shape at the LGM.

Keywords

Antarctic ice sheets Expert elicitation Principal component analysis Subjective Bayesian methods 

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Fiona Turner
    • 1
    Email author
  • Richard Wilkinson
    • 1
  • Caitlin Buck
    • 1
  • Julie Jones
    • 2
  • Louise Sime
    • 3
  1. 1.School of Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of SheffieldSheffieldUK
  2. 2.Department of GeographyUniversity of SheffieldSheffieldUK
  3. 3.British Antarctic SurveyCambridgeUK

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