Advertisement

Strategic Trade Analysis for Non-proliferation

  • Cristina VersinoEmail author
  • Giacomo G.  M. Cojazzi
Chapter
  • 28 Downloads

Abstract

Strategic trade analysis is about national and global trade flows of items with strategic military value. Strategic items include goods with exclusive military use, but also dual-use items that have both military and civil uses. Because of their strategic nature, dual-use goods are controlled as a measure of non-proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Trade analysis in dual-use items, in particular the nuclear related ones listed for export controls by the Nuclear Suppliers Group, is the focus of this contribution. Despite the global dimension of strategic trade and controls, no specific data are available on global strategic trade. We thus suggest using open source data on global trade to support strategic trade analysis. The data are not specific to strategic trade, but related to it, providing a portrait of strategic trade in the absence of more specific data. It can be expected the effectiveness of controls be enhanced in several ways by the analysis of trade data related to strategic goods. By understanding the national and global trade in strategic-related commodities, officials may better focus controls, select companies for in-reach and audit, target transactions for analysis, verification, and inspection, and assess potential economic impacts of trade control regulations. The chapter covers data sources, a methodology for data selection, underpinning tools and data use cases. The context for strategic trade analysis is briefly recalled by introducing lists of items subject to export controls, with a focus on the nuclear-related ones.

Notes

Acknowledgements

The work presented in this chapter stem from activities performed in the project Information Analysis and methodologies for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and security, work package on Strategic Trade Analysis for Non-Proliferation (STANP), funded by (i) the European Commission (EC), Euratom Horizon 2020 Research and Training Programme, (ii) Administrative Arrangement JRC.ITU.AA.32608-2011 between DG TRADE and JRC, (iii) Administrative Arrangement IFS/2012/301-675 (as amended in 2014) between DG DEVCO and JRC. STANP contributes to the EC Support Programme to the IAEA under Task EC D 1662, and to the Collaboration Agreement between the United States Department of Energy (DOE) and the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM) under Action Sheet 57.

References

  1. 1.
    Wassenaar Arrangement. http://www.wassenaar.org. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  2. 2.
    Missile Technology Control Regime. http://www.mtcr.info. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  3. 3.
    Nuclear Suppliers Group. http://www.nuclearsuppliersgroup.org. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  4. 4.
    Nuclear Suppliers Group (2015) The Nuclear Suppliers Group: Its Origins, Role and Activities. INFCIRC/539/Rev.6Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Australia Group. http://www.australiagroup.net. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  6. 6.
    Chemical Weapons Convention. http://www.australiagroup.net. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  7. 7.
    Council Regulation (EC) No 428/2009 setting up a Community regime for the control of exports, transfer, brokering and transit of dual-use items (Recast)Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Davis I (2002) The Regulation of Arms and Dual-Use Exports: Germany, Sweden and the UK. Oxford University Press, ISBN 0-19-925219-XGoogle Scholar
  9. 9.
    Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No 2015/2420 of 12 October 2015 amending Council Regulation (EC) No 428/2009 setting up a Community regime for the control of exports, transfer, brokering and transit of dual-use itemsGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Nuclear Suppliers Group (2013) Guidelines for Nuclear Transfers, INFCIRC/254/Rev.12/Part 1Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    Nuclear Suppliers Group (2013) Guidelines for Transfers of Nuclear-Related Dual-Use Equipment, Materials, Software and Related Technology, INFCIRC/254/Rev.9/Part 2Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPTtext.shtml. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  13. 13.
    IAEA (1997) INFCIRC/540 (Corrected). Model Protocol Additional to the Agreement(S) Between State(S) and the International Atomic Energy Agency for the Application of SafeguardsGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    Versino C, Tsukanova M, Cojazzi GGM (2010) Catalogue of WEB Data Services on Global Trade. EUR 24657 EN, ISBN 9789279189197, JRC62363Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    UN COMTRADE. http://comtrade.un.org. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  16. 16.
  17. 17.
    Global Trade Atlas. https://www.gtis.com/gta/. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  18. 18.
    COMEXT. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/newxtweb/. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  19. 19.
    CTI China Trade Information. http://info.hktdc.com/chinastat/gcb/index2.htm. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  20. 20.
    INFODRIVE India. http://www.infodriveindia.com. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  21. 21.
    Harmonized System by the World Customs Organization. http://www.wcoomd.org/en/topics/nomenclature/overview/what-is-the-harmonized-system.aspx. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  22. 22.
  23. 23.
    EU Correlation Table document by DG TAXUD, updated January 2015. http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2015/january/tradoc_153050.xlsx. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  24. 24.
    TARIC consultation site. http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  25. 25.
    Versino C (2007) Export Control of Dual-Use Items and Technology: The Nuclear Correlation Table. JRC40413Google Scholar
  26. 26.
    World Customs Organization (2014) Strategic Trade Control Enforcement (STCE) Implementation Guide. http://www.wcoomd.org/en/media/newsroom/2014/june/~/link.aspx?$_$id=A3AD81E1BFC742F2806DCAC55C54B743&$_$z=z. Accessed 16 May 2018
  27. 27.
    Versino C (2015) Dual-use Trade Figures and How They Combine. JRC97664, EUR 27514 EN, ISBN 978-92-79-52715-9, https://doi.org/10.2789/439924
  28. 28.
    Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council on the implementation of Regulation (EC) No 428/2009 setting up a Community regime for the control of exports, transfer, brokering and transit of dual-use items. COM(2015) 331 final, 10.7.2015.Google Scholar
  29. 29.
    Versino C, Contini F, Cojazzi GGM (2011) The Big Table. An Information Tool on Items Listed for Export Controls. In: Proc. 33rd ESARDA Annual Meeting, BudapestGoogle Scholar
  30. 30.
    Versino C, Contini F, Cojazzi GGM (2011) An Information Tool on Items Listed for Export Controls. In: Proc. 52nd INMM Annual Meeting, Palm Desert, CA USAGoogle Scholar
  31. 31.
    Versino C, Contini F, Chatelus R, Cojazzi GGM (2011) The Big Table. A Software Tool for Nuclear Trade Analysis. EUR 24823 EN, ISBN 978-92-79-20297-1, JRC62804Google Scholar
  32. 32.
    Cojazzi GGM, Versino C, Wolfart E, Renda G, Janssens W (2014) Tools for Trade Analysis and Open Source Information Monitoring for Nonproliferation. In: Proc. Symposium on International Safeguards: Linking Strategy, Implementation and People. IAEA, ViennaGoogle Scholar
  33. 33.
    Versino C, El Gebaly A, Marinova E, Pasterczyk C, Cojazzi GGM (2013) Integrating IAEA’s Physical Model with JRC’s The Big Table document search tool. EUR 26215 EN, ISBN 978-92-79-33675-1, JRC77541Google Scholar
  34. 34.
    Missile Technology Control Regime (2017) Annex Handbook. http://mtcr.info/mtcr-annex/. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  35. 35.
    Australia Group Common Control Lists Handbooks. http://www.australiagroup.net/en/controllisthandbooks.html. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  36. 36.
    Liu Z, Morsy S (2007) Development of the Physical Model. IAEA-SM-367/13/07, IAEA, ViennaGoogle Scholar
  37. 37.
    Versino C, Cojazzi GGM, Contini F (2010) Understanding Nuclear Trade: Data Sources and Tools. In: Proc. Symposium on International Safeguards: Preparing for Future Verification Challenges, ViennaGoogle Scholar
  38. 38.
    Cojazzi GGM, Versino C, Wolfart E, Renda G, Janssens W (2014) Trade Analysis and Open Source Information Monitoring for Non Proliferation. Information Analysis Technologies, Techniques, and Methods for Safeguards, Nonproliferation and Arms Control Verification Workshop. INMM, Portland, Oregon USAGoogle Scholar
  39. 39.
    Versino C (2014) Pattern Recognition by Humans and Machines. In: Proc. Symposium on International Safeguards: Linking Strategy, Implementation and People, ViennaGoogle Scholar
  40. 40.
    Heine P, Versino C (2015) A Strategic Trade Atlas For Non-proliferation and Export Control. In: Proc. 56th) INMM Annual Meeting, Indian Wells, CA USAGoogle Scholar
  41. 41.
    Versino C, Heine P (2016) Strategic Trade Atlas, Country-Based views. EUR 27739 EN, ISBN 978-92-79-55003-4, JRC100392Google Scholar
  42. 42.
    Geonomenclature site by Eurostat. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/other_documents/geonom/. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  43. 43.
    ISO 3166 Country codes. The International Standard for country codes and codes for their subdivisions. http://www.iso.org/iso/home/standards/country_codes.htm. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  44. 44.
    Tableau software. http://www.tableausoftware.com. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  45. 45.
    Avenhaus R, Kyriakopoulos N, Richard M, Stein G (Eds) (2006) Verifying Treaty Compliance. Limiting Weapons of Mass Destruction and Monitoring Kyoto Protocol Provisions. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. ISBN 978-3-540-33854-3Google Scholar
  46. 46.
    Bril L-V, Goncalves JGM (2006) Open Source Information Collection, Processing and Applications. In: Avenhaus R, Kyriakopoulos N, Richard M, Stein G (Eds) Verifying Treaty Compliance. Limiting Weapons of Mass Destruction and Monitoring Kyoto Protocol Provisions. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. ISBN 978-3-540-33854-3Google Scholar
  47. 47.
    Versino C, Chatelus R, Cojazzi GGM, Contini F, Tarvainen M, Tsois A (2009) Exploring the Use of Trade Data to Support Safeguards Verification Activities. In: Proc. 31st ESARDA Annual Meeting, VilniusGoogle Scholar
  48. 48.
    Versino C, Chatelus R, Cojazzi GGM, Contini F, Tarvainen M, Tsois A (2010) World Trade Data: Can They Help Safeguards Verification Activities? In: Proc. 51st INMM Annual Meeting, Baltimore, MD USAGoogle Scholar
  49. 49.
    Versino C, Chateluy R, Cojazzi GGM, Contini F, Tarvainen M, Tsois A (2010) Global Trade Data to Support IAEA Safeguards. ESARDA Bulletin 45:14–22Google Scholar
  50. 50.
    Marinova E, Ardhammar M, El Gebaly A, Shot P, Ferguson M (2014) Analysis of Nuclear Relevant Information on International Procurement and Industrial Activities for Safeguards Purposes. In: Proc. Symposium on International Safeguards: Linking Strategy, Implementation and People. IAEA, ViennaGoogle Scholar
  51. 51.
    Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament. The Review of export control policy: ensuring security and competitiveness in a changing world. COM(2014) 244 final, 24.4.2014Google Scholar
  52. 52.
    EU P2P Export Control Programme. https://export-control.jrc.ec.europa.eu/Home/Dual-use-trade-control. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  53. 53.
    Versino C, Heine P, Carrera J. Strategic Trade Atlas. Country-Based Views. (2018) ISBN 978-92-79-84030-2, 2018. http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC111470. Accessed 28 Feb 2019
  54. 54.
    Versino C, Heine P, Carrera J. Strategic Trade Atlas. Commodity-Based Views. (2018) ISBN 978-92-79-84031-9, 2018. http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC111471. Accessed 28 Feb 2019

Copyright information

© This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.EC Directorate General Joint Research CentreDirectorate G - Nuclear Safety and SecurityIspraItaly

Personalised recommendations