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Introduction

  • Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt
Chapter

Abstract

This chapter highlights the purpose of this book and introduces a new ice-jam flood forecasting methodology. A basic understanding of river-ice processes is provided in each chapter of the book, which is required to implement such an approach. The method is based on a stochastic modelling framework, which reflects the chaotic nature of river-ice jams and their subsequent flooding potential. Small shifts in the hydraulic and ice regimes of a jam can cause very different outcomes in terms of the condition of the ice jam and the state of flooding. However, order can be found in chaotic systems, and, through the stochastic modelling framework, frequency distributions of the ensemble of backwater levels from multiple model simulations are able to place the flooding potential in a probabilistic context.

Keywords

Flood-frequency distributions Ice-jam flood forecasting Monte Carlo analyses Probable maximum ice-jam flood Stage-frequency distributions Stochastic modelling approach 

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt
    • 1
  1. 1.Global Institute for Water SecurityUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoonCanada

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