Challenges in the Modelling and Control of Varicella in Hungary
The introduction of varicella-zoster virus (VZV) vaccines into the routine vaccination schedule is being under consideration in Hungary. Mathematical models can be greatly useful in advising public health policy decision making by comparing predictions for different scenarios, and by quantifying the costs and benefits of immunization strategies. Here we summarize the major challenges, most of them specific to Hungary, in devising and parametrizing dynamical models of varicella transmission dynamics with vaccination policy. We gain some important insights from a simple compartmental model regarding the seasonality and intrinsic oscillation frequency of the disease dynamics, and the sensitivity to the underreporting ratio. Finally, we discuss the ideas for a more complete, realistic model.
Research was supported by the projects EFOP-3.6.2-16-2017-00015, NKFI KH 125628, 20391-3/2018/FEKUSTRAT, and MSCA-IF 748193 (G. Röst).