Shapes of Hazard Functions and Lifetime Distributions
- 1.If one or a few infected individuals are “seeded” in a large and completely susceptible population, will it only lead to a handful of infected individuals and the (small) outbreak burns out; or will it lead to an “explosive” (large) outbreak that results in a significant proportion of the population infected?
If the outcome is the former, what is the expected total number of infected individuals and what is the expected time to extinction?
If the outcome is the latter, how fast will it grow?
In a large outbreak, can we predict the peak burden of the disease and the timing of the peak? How about the long-term outcomes? Will it simply go away after a single wave or a few repeated waves, or will it settle down at some equilibrium state and the epidemic becomes endemic?
What about the effects of control measures, such as public health interventions including quarantine, isolation, or pharmaceutical treatments and vaccination?
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