Measuring the Weather Variability Effects on the Agricultural Sector in Morocco

  • Karim Belcaid
  • Ahmed El Ghini
Conference paper
Part of the Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing book series (AISC, volume 1001)


Weather variability affects agricultural productivity, especially the  growing conditions of crops. This impact is considered as the main obstacle to the realization of the first Millennium Development Goal of reducing food insecurity and poverty in poorest countries. In this paper, we provide some insights into the relationship between annual variations in temperature and rainfall on the one hand, and annual agricultural productivity on the other hand. Based on Diebold and Yilmaz approach, we assess the degree of connectedness and variability effects transmitted among the above variables. The sampling frequency data is annual and covers the period from 1980 to 2016. The findings highlight a substantial increase in weather variability in critical periods; more precisely the extreme variability in weather conditions was noticeably accompanied by significant increases in the spillover effects transmitted to agriculture in Morocco. Particularly, the results confirm the deep relationships between rainfall and agriculture in Morocco. In fact, increases in rainfall may have had a positive effect; however, the threat of temperature rise and rainfall reduction increases the risk of droughts.


Variability effects Agricultural productivity Temperature and rainfall Weather variability Greenhouse 



The authors gratefully acknowledge the comments/suggestions from the participants during the presentation of an earlier version of this paper in the 61st ISI World Statistics Congress held in Marrakech, Morocco on July 16–21, (ISI 2017); and those from participants of the 2nd Conference on Econometrics for Environment (December 19–21, Nador, Morocco), as well as reviewers of the ICMSEM’2019, Ontario, Canada. In particular, they deeply appreciate the careful reading and many very interesting remarks/suggestions provided by Ronald van Nooijen, contributing to the improvement of the quality of this paper.


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© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Karim Belcaid
    • 1
  • Ahmed El Ghini
    • 1
  1. 1.Laboratory of Economic Analysis and Modeling, Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences-SouissiMohammed V University in RabatRabatMorocco

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