Modeling Social and Geopolitical Disasters as Extreme Events: A Case Study Considering the Complex Dynamics of International Armed Conflicts

  • Reinaldo Roberto RosaEmail author
  • Joshi Neelakshi
  • Gabriel Augusto L. L. Pinheiro
  • Paulo Henrique Barchi
  • Elcio Hideiti Shiguemori


Just as various sorts of extreme climatic events are identified in Earth’s atmosphere, so are some types of extreme events in our sociosphere. A geopolitical conflict that can result in a social disaster is an example. In this chapter, the turbulent-like dynamics of international armed conflicts are treated within the scope of complex multi-agent systems explicitly considering the properties of multiplicative non-homogeneous cascade where endogeny and exogeny are key points in the mathematical model of the phenomenon. As a main result, this study introduces a cellular automata prototype that allows characterizing regimes of extreme armed conflicts such as the 9∕11 terrorist attacks and the great world wars.



The authors are grateful for the financial support of the following agencies: CNPq, CAPES, and FAPESP.


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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Reinaldo Roberto Rosa
    • 1
    Email author
  • Joshi Neelakshi
    • 2
  • Gabriel Augusto L. L. Pinheiro
    • 2
  • Paulo Henrique Barchi
    • 2
  • Elcio Hideiti Shiguemori
    • 3
  1. 1.Lab for Computing and Applied Mathematics-INPESão José dos CamposBrazil
  2. 2.CAP-INPESão José dos CamposBrazil
  3. 3.Geo-intelligence Division, Institute of Advanced Studies (IEAV)Rov. TamoiosSão José dos CamposBrazil

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