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Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction of Airspace Sectors Based on Multiple Time Series Learning Mechanism

  • Zhaoning Zhang
  • Kexuan LiuEmail author
  • Fei Lu
  • Wenya Li
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes of the Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering book series (LNICST, volume 279)

Abstract

Firstly, by analyzing the original radar data of the aircraft in the airspace system, the historical operation information of each sector is extracted, and the traffic flow correlation between different routes of the same sector is considered. According to the characteristics of busy sector traffic flow data, a multi-dimensional data model of traffic flow with multiple related routes in the sector is constructed. Secondly, based on the data model, a traffic flow forecasting algorithm based on multi-time series machine learning is proposed. The main core idea of the algorithm is to use the time series clustering method to reduce the dimensionality of multi-dimensional traffic flow data, and then introduce the machine learning method for concurrent training. The training result obtains the optimal classifier group through competition. Finally, the multi-optimal machine learning integrated prediction method is designed to predict traffic flow. Taking the typical busy sector in China as an example, the proposed prediction method is verified. The research results show that the prediction results are better than the traditional single time series machine learning method, and the stability of the prediction results is good, which can fully reflect the dynamics and uncertainty of short-term traffic flow between sectors in each airspace, in line with the actual situation of air traffic.

Keywords

Traffic flow prediction Learning mechanism Airspace sectors Flight scheduling 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71701202).

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Copyright information

© ICST Institute for Computer Sciences, Social Informatics and Telecommunications Engineering 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Civil Aviation University of ChinaTianjinChina

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