Historians study the paths that have led from paradise or fearful despair to the present; futurists study the paths that lead from the present to a promised paradise or fearful despair. One profession looks back and learns from past successes and mistakes; the other looks forward to find a route to a desired future. One tries to find truth about what happened and the other conjectures about what may happen and how to improve on a future based on random chance and weak decisions. We have used counterfactual thinking throughout and illustrate some outcomes using point scenarios. We have used present tense in all of our scenarios, so in order to avoid any possibility of confusion between true history of the facts in the issues we discuss, and speculation, we have placed the scenario narratives in italics throughout this book. They are not true.
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