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Spatio-Temporal Drought Risk Analysis Using GIS-Based Input Output Modeling

  • Sheree Pagsuyoin
  • Joost SantosEmail author
  • Gustavo Salcedo
  • Christian Yip
Chapter
Part of the Advances in Spatial Science book series (ADVSPATIAL)

Abstract

Recent studies in the area of disaster risk management emphasize the increasing likelihood and adverse consequences of droughts. Droughts can have widespread severe impacts; for example, in 2016, the northeastern region of the United States experienced record levels of rainfall shortage, forcing regional government agencies to issue warnings and emergency advisories to the public. During drought events, the economic losses due to water shortage and government-mandated restriction measures create costly cascading effects due to the interconnected and interdependent nature of the economic sectors. Such sectors have different degrees of dependence on water, and often there is a lack of coordination in implementing sector-specific resilience measures, which makes the drought recovery management a complex and daunting task. Indeed, water is a critical resource and it is essential in producing a myriad number of goods and services in the economy. In the current chapter, the authors develop a new modeling framework for drought risk management by integrating spatial analysis and dynamic input-output modeling to better understand the direct and indirect effects of drought scenarios on interdependent sectors of a regional economy. A decision support tool that utilizes the geographic information systems (GIS) platform was also developed to perform the following functions: (1) model the time-varying impacts of drought scenarios on a regional economy, (2) simulate the responses of individual sectors throughout various stages of the drought recovery timeline, and (3) estimate the regional economic losses and potential benefits of implementing different categories of drought management policies. The utility of the integrated IO-GIS framework and decision support tool is demonstrated in a case study of the historic and widespread drought that occurred in the State of Massachusetts in 2016.

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Sheree Pagsuyoin
    • 1
  • Joost Santos
    • 2
    Email author
  • Gustavo Salcedo
    • 1
  • Christian Yip
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Massachusetts-LowellLowellUSA
  2. 2.Department of Engineering Management and Systems EngineeringGeorge Washington UniversityWashingtonUSA

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