Electric Load Forecasting Based on Sparse Representation Model
Accurate electric load forecasting can prevent the waste of power resources and plays a crucial role in smart grid. The time series of electric load collected by smart meters are non-linear and non-stationary, which poses a great challenge to the traditional forecasting methods. In this paper, sparse representation model (SRM) is proposed as a novel approach to tackle this challenge. The main idea of SRM is to obtain sparse representation coefficients by the training set and the part of over-complete dictionary, and the rest part of over-complete dictionary multiplied with sparse representation coefficients can be used to predict the future load value. Experimental results demonstrate that SRM is capable of forecasting the complex electric load time series effectively. It outperforms some popular machine learning methods such as Neural Network, SVM, and Random Forest.
KeywordsElectric load forecasting Smart grid Sparse representation
This work is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China under Grant No. 2017YFB1002000; the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 61772136, 61672159, 61772005; the Technology Innovation Platform Project of Fujian Province under Grant No. 2014H2005; the Research Project for Young and Middle-aged Teachers of Fujian Province under Grant No. JT180045; the Fujian Collaborative Innovation Center for Big Data Application in Governments; the Fujian Engineering Research Center of Big Data Analysis and Processing.
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