Taking Stock of the Situation: NATO
This chapter first provides an overview of NATO’s current posture toward climate security risk, surveying the history of NATO’s institutional transformation, its current environmental policies, and its previous engagement and activities concerning the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the Arctic. The chapter then discusses two recent foresight efforts conducted by NATO’s Allied Command Transformation (ACT): The Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA) and the subsequent Framework for Future Alliance Operations (FFAO). I discuss the relationship between these two efforts, as well as their outcomes. In particular, I identify three Instability Situations that will serve as the basis for analysis in subsequent chapters. I conclude the chapter with a critique of the common characteristics among these scenarios, and a discussion of how each one compares to its counterpart in the core conclusions of the IPCC Summary for Policymakers. In so doing, I establish why the NATO ACT Instability Situations serve as a reasonable proxy for the perspective of NATO Headquarters with respect to the security consequences anticipated to result from climate change.