Bayesian Revision of Probability Estimates

  • Ivan Damnjanovic
  • Kenneth Reinschmidt
Part of the Risk, Systems and Decisions book series (RSD)


In this chapter we introduce Bayesian methods for updating model parameters based on new project-specific data. We provide formal introduction of Bayes theorem to update parameters of probability distributions used in project risk analysis. We discuss examples of updating the probability of arrival of machine breakdown and new change orders using Bayes theorem.


Bayes law Estimation of parameter distribution Poisson process 


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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ivan Damnjanovic
    • 1
  • Kenneth Reinschmidt
    • 2
  1. 1.Texas A&M UniversityCollege StationUSA
  2. 2.College StationUSA

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