Analysis of Indicators of High-Technology Production Using Optimization Models, Taking into Account the Shortage of Working Capital
We present a new approach to an estimate of company’s value in the high-tech sector, based on the results of research of the mathematical model of production, taking into account the crediting of working capital in an unstable demand. The model is formalized in the form of the Bellman equation, which solution gives an estimate of the enterprise value depending on its performance indicators and external economic conditions. The method develops the income approach to an estimate of company’s value and takes into account the specifics of the economic regulation of production in the industry and provides an opportunity for an operative analysis of production indicators when external conditions change. The paper presents the results of analysis of the capitalization dynamics of the large Russian company Kamaz using the developed model. The results of the study of the modified model that takes into account the impact of the accumulated debt burden on the enterprise’s indicators are proposed. The solution of the corresponding Bellman equation makes it possible to estimate the magnitude of the critical debt of the company corresponding to the bankruptcy boundary and the debt accounting parameter for the bankruptcy of the company. In the paper, the properties of the company’s capitalization in terms of a model that takes into account the debt burden and infrastructure constraint are also given.
KeywordsBellman equation Production model Unstable demand Current assets deficit Debt burden Identification Capitalization
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