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REWAS 2019 pp 333-336 | Cite as

Exploring Drivers of Copper Supply and Demand Using a Dynamic Market Simulation

  • Jingshu Zhang
  • Omar Swei
  • Richard Roth
  • Randolph KirchainEmail author
Conference paper
Part of the The Minerals, Metals & Materials Series book series (MMMS)

Abstract

Several authors have suggested that supplies for key non-renewable resources may soon cease to expand at the same rate as demand. Inevitably this would lead to some peak and then decline in production. This work describes the development and application of a fully dynamic model of the copper market. This model includes both a probabilistic simulator of future supply expansion based on published data on copper deposits and a novel model of copper demand that includes both short-term and long-term elasticity of demand—both due to self-price and aluminum price. Using this model in long-term simulations suggests significant copper reserve depletion would not be expected to occur in this century. The model predicts a time frame to significant depletion that is more than 50% further out in the future than previously reported results that did not include these effects.

Keywords

Price elasticity Economics Criticality 

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Copyright information

© The Minerals, Metals & Materials Society 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jingshu Zhang
    • 1
  • Omar Swei
    • 2
  • Richard Roth
    • 1
  • Randolph Kirchain
    • 1
    Email author
  1. 1.Materials Systems LaboratoryMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridgeUSA
  2. 2.Department of Civil EngineeringUniversity of British ColumbiaVancouverCanada

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