Detecting Adverse Events in an Active Theater of War Using Advanced Computational Intelligence Techniques

  • Jozef ZuradaEmail author
  • Donghui Shi
  • Waldemar Karwowski
  • Jian Guan
  • Erman Çakıt
Conference paper
Part of the Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing book series (AISC, volume 896)


This study investigates the effectiveness of advanced computational intelligence techniques in detecting adverse events in Afghanistan. The study first applies feature reduction techniques to identify significant variables. Then it uses five cost-sensitive classification methods. Finally, the study reports the resulting classification accuracy rates and areas under the receiver operating characteristics charts for adverse events for each method for the entire country and its seven regions. It appears that when analysis is performed for the entire country, there is little correlation between adverse events and project types and the number of projects. However, the same type of analysis performed for each of its seven regions shows a connection between adverse events and the infrastructure budget and the number of projects allocated for the specific regions and times. Among the five classifiers, the C4.5 decision tree and k-nearest neighbor seem to be the best in terms of global performance.


Detecting adverse events Active war theater Computational intelligence Soft computing 



This study was supported in part by Grant no. 10523339, Complex Systems Engineering for Rapid Computational Socio-Cultural Network Analysis, from the Office of Naval Research awarded to Dr. W. Karwowski at the University of Central Florida.


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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jozef Zurada
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  • Donghui Shi
    • 3
  • Waldemar Karwowski
    • 4
  • Jian Guan
    • 1
  • Erman Çakıt
    • 5
  1. 1.Department of Computer Information Systems, College of BusinessUniversity of LouisvilleLouisvilleUSA
  2. 2.WSB GdanskGdanskPoland
  3. 3.Department of Computer EngineeringAnhui Jianzhu UniversityHefeiChina
  4. 4.Department of Industrial Engineering and Management SystemsUniversity of Central FloridaOrlandoUSA
  5. 5.Department of Industrial EngineeringAksaray UniversityAksarayTurkey

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