Advertisement

Megatrends, a Way to Identify the Future Transport Challenges

  • Vladislav Maraš
  • Mirjana Bugarinović
  • Eleni Anoyrkati
  • Alba Avarello
Conference paper
Part of the Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing book series (AISC, volume 879)

Abstract

In the last ten years, huge advances in detecting trends methodology have been spotted in particular in Europe. Trend represents a fundamental change over an extended period, i.e. associations that are defined by crossing contextual borders. They are phenomena that are always complex and whose lifespans can only be measured inaccurately. Trends, whose implications are reflected on the whole or almost entire society, are called megatrends. The objective of this paper is to define the key megatrends affecting the future passenger and freight transportation system through review and analysis of the transport reports and studies on the global level. Megatrends commonly elaborated in the majority of literature sources will be identified. It indicates a convergence to those that are most important for the future development of transportation processes.

Keywords

Key megatrends Passenger and freight transportation Reaching consensus 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The results incorporated in this paper received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 769638, project title: INtentify future Transport rEsearch NeeDs (INTEND).

References

  1. 1.
    Aho, E., Lyly, L., Mero, I.: Transport and Communications Architecture 2030 and 2050. Final report by rapporteurs, Reports 8/2017, Ministry of Transport and Communications, Finland (2017)Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    ALICE: Sustainable, Safe and Secure Supply Chain, Research & Innovation Roadmap, European Technology Platform – Alliance for Logistics Innovation through Collaboration in Europe (2014)Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Ansoff, I.H.: Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals. Calif. Manag. Rev. 18, 21–33 (1975)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Ansoff, I.H.: Strategic response in turbulent environments. In: Working Paper no. 82–35. European Institute for Advanced Studies in Management (1982)Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Anoyrkati, E., Maraš, V., Bugarinović, M., Paladini, S.: Paving the way to sustainable transport. In: Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Traffic and Transport Engineering, Belgrade, Serbia, pp. 777–784 (2016)Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Ashton Acton, Q.: Issues in Dentistry, Oral Health, Odontology, and Craniofacial Research, 2013th edn. ScholarlyEditions, Atlanta, Georgia (2013)Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Bingham, P.: Freight transportation “Megatrends”. In: Proceedings of the Freight Demand Modeling: Tools for Public–Sector Decision Making Conference, pp. 5–10. Plenary Session, Washington, DC, USA (2006)Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    CIPTEC: Societal needs and requirements for future transportation and mobility as well as opportunities and challenges of current solutions, CIPTECT project deliverable D1.1, H2020, European Commission (2014)Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Clausen, U., Holloh, K.–D., Kadow, M.: Visions of the future: transportation and logistics 2030 – Examining the potential for the development of road and rail transportation to 2030. Fraunhofer IML, Daimler AG, DB Mobility Logistics AG (2014)Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    Deutsche Post.: Delivering Tomorrow – Logistics 2050 A Scenario Study. Deutsche Post AG, Z_punkt (2012)Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    DHL: Logistics trend radar, DHL Customer Solutions & Innovation (2016)Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    ERRAC: Strategic Rail Research and Innovation Agenda – A step change in rail research and innovation, European Technology Platform – European Rail Research Advisory Council (2014)Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    European Commission.: A sustainable future for transport – Towards an integrated, technology–led and user–friendly system. COM(2009) 279 (final) of 17 June 2009, Directorate–General for Energy and Transport (2009). https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/media/publications/doc/2009_future_of_transport_en.pdf. Accessed 15 Nov 2017
  14. 14.
    FORD.: The Future of Sustainable Transport in Europe. The Futures Company (2012). https://uk.kantar.com/media/122799/ford_the_future_of_sustainable_transport_in_europe_november2012.pdf. Accessed 10 Nov 2017
  15. 15.
    FUTRE.: Factors of evolution of demand and methodological approach to identify pathways. D3.1., FUTRE – Future prospects on Transport evolution and innovation challenges for the competitiveness of Europe, Coordination and Support Action FP7 – 314181, European Commission (2013)Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    Future Transport 2056: Global megatrends – the seven global megatrends. New South Wales Government, Australia (2016)Google Scholar
  17. 17.
    IATA: Future of the airline industry 2035, The International Air Transport Association (2017)Google Scholar
  18. 18.
    Jeschke, S.: Global Trends in Transport Routes and Goods Transport: Influence on Future International Loading Units. Discussion Paper, 16th ACEA SAG Meeting, 2011 (2011)Google Scholar
  19. 19.
    Kautzsch, T., Kronenwett, D., Thibault, G.: Megatrends and the future of industry – A new era in manufacturing presents long–term opportunities, Oliver Wyman’s Automotive and Manufacturing Industries practice (2016)Google Scholar
  20. 20.
    Kelly, S.E., Moher, D., Cliford, T.J.: Defining rapid reviews: a modified Delphi consensus approach. Int. J. Technol. Assess. Health Care 32(4), 265–275 (2016)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. 21.
    Kleynen, M., Braun, S.M., Bleijlevens, M.H., Lexis, M.A., Rasquin, S.M., Halfens, J., Wilson, M.R., Beurskens, A.J., Masters, R.S.W.: Using a Delphi technique to seek consensus regarding definitions, descriptions and classification of terms related to implicit and explicit forms of motor learning. PLoS ONE 9(6), e100227 (2014).  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0100227CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. 22.
    Liebl, F., Schwarz, J.O.: Normality of the future. Futures 42, 313–327 (2010)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    Megatrends transportation: Wisconsin Land Use Megatrends – Transportation. University of Wisconsin – Stevens Point, Center for Land Use Education (2017)Google Scholar
  24. 24.
    Mobility4EU.: Societal needs and requirements for future transportation and mobility as well as opportunities and challenges of current solutions. D2.1., Mobility4EU – Action Plan for the Future Mobility in Europe, CSA H2020 – 690732, EC (2016)Google Scholar
  25. 25.
    Nissler, W., Guichard, F.: UNECE and Intelligent Transport Systems, Vehicle Regulations and Transport Innovations Section, UNECE (2017)Google Scholar
  26. 26.
    OPTIMISM.: List of potential Megatrends influencing transport system and mobility behavior. OPTIMISM – Optimising Passenger Transport Information to Materialize Insights for Sustainable Mobility, Coordination and Support Action FP7– 284892, European Commission (2012)Google Scholar
  27. 27.
    Retief, F., Bond, A., Pope, J., Morrison–Saunders, A., King, N.: Global megatrends and their implications for environmental assessment practice. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 61, 52–60 (2016)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. 28.
    Silva, M., Ribeiro, N., Rodrigues, M.: Race 2050: trends in the demand for transportation systems, In: Marchettini, N., Brebbia, C.A., Pulselli, R., Bastianoni, S. (eds.) The Sustainable City IX: Urban Regeneration and Sustainability, vol. 2, pp. 885 – 897. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment (2014)Google Scholar
  29. 29.
    Stewart, C., Luebkeman, C., Morrell, M., Goulding, L.: Future of Rail 2050. ARUP, London, UK (2014)Google Scholar
  30. 30.
    Surrender, S.: Mega Trends Impacting the Automotive Industry and the Future of Mobility. Frost & Sullivan, Automotive & TransportationGoogle Scholar
  31. 31.
    The Future of Transport.: The future of transport, Go–Ahead, Passenger Focus (2012). https://www.transportfocus.org.uk/research–publications/publications/the–future–of–transport–overview/. Accessed 10 Nov 2017
  32. 32.
    TOSCA: Scenarios of European Transport Futures in a Global Context. TOSCA – Technology Opportunities and Strategies towards Climate friendly transport, FP7–TPT–2008–RTD–1, European Commission (2011)Google Scholar
  33. 33.
    UITP: Public transport trends, UITP – Advancing public transport (2015)Google Scholar
  34. 34.
    UNECE ITS: Intelligent Transport Systems for Sustainable Mobility, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (2012)Google Scholar
  35. 35.
    US DOE: The Transforming Mobility Ecosystem: Enabling an Energy–Efficient Future, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, US Department of Energy (2017)Google Scholar
  36. 36.
    US DOT: Beyond Traffic 2045, Final report (2017)Google Scholar
  37. 37.
    Vejlgaard, H.: Anatomy of a Trend. McGraw–Hill, New York (2008)Google Scholar
  38. 38.
    von Groddeck, V., Schwarz, J.O.: Perceiving megatrends as empty signifiers: a discourse–theoretical interpretation of trend management. Futures 47, 28–37 (2013)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. 39.
    WaterborneTP: Global trends driving maritime innovation, Maritime Europe Strategy Action, European Technology Platform – WATERBORNE (2016)Google Scholar
  40. 40.
    World Energy Council: Global Transport Scenarios 2050. World Energy Council, IBM Corporation, Paul Scherrer Institute (2011). https://www.worldenergy.org/wp–content/uploads/2012/09/wec_transport_scenarios_2050.pdf. Accessed 15 Nov 2017

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Vladislav Maraš
    • 1
  • Mirjana Bugarinović
    • 1
  • Eleni Anoyrkati
    • 2
  • Alba Avarello
    • 2
  1. 1.Faculty of Transport and Traffic EngineeringUniversity of BelgradeBelgradeSerbia
  2. 2.Coventry University Enterprises LtdCoventryUK

Personalised recommendations